The Daily Something
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Written by Bill
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Thursday, 08 July 2010 09:00 |
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Because (a) teams are a few games over the halfway point in the season and (b) I don't have time to think of anything original tonight, here are my picks for the awards in each league so far:
AL MVP: Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins (.342/.436/.620, 17 HR, 4.9 WAR) Robinson Cano had passed him for a while, but Morneau's put some space between them again. Per FanGraphs' measures, he's been the most productive hitter in the Major Leagues and, in terms of runs saved over average, their tenth best fielder (first by a long shot among first basemen). It's a pretty easy choice right now. Runners-up: Cano and Josh Hamilton.
NL MVP: Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (.316/.419/.595, 4.1 WAR) No, it wouldn't be the first time the MVP didn't make the All-Star team (Morneau, for one, didn't make it in '06), but it would probably be the first time the first-half MVP didn't make the All-Star team. Way to go, Charlie. David Wright is actually ahead of Votto in WAR (by 0.1 on FanGraphs and 0.6 on BBREF), but I have to account for the fact that Wright's UZR is 3.3 this year after being -10.0 last year, so I trust Votto's current numbers more than Wright's. Runners-up: Wright and Zimmerman. Yeah, that's right, one of the three most valuable players in the league so far -- and they're both bona fide superstars, not just guys having a good three months -- is guaranteed not to make the All-Star team. Ugh.
AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee, Mariners (103 IP, 8-3, 2.34 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 4.0 WAR) FanGraphs WAR and my heart both say Liriano (another non-All-Star somehow), but while I know he's been awesome, I can't completely ignore the actual results. (And the difference is just two runs.) BBREF treats pitchers entirely differently, and ranks those two guys 4th and 5th in the league. Runners-up: Jon Lester and Jered Weaver (yep, another non-All-Star).
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Phillies (139 IP, 10-7, 2.33 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 4.1 WAR) People have already given this award to Ubaldo Jimenez for his 14-1 won-loss record, and he's got to be a heavy favorite to win anyway, but I preferred Halladay and the Marlins' Josh Johnson even before Jimenez got knocked around a little bit. Jimenez just hasn't been as good as his record and ERA indicate. Johnson has been the most dominant pitcher in the league by a long shot, but Halladay has pitched a whopping 25 more innings. Runners-up: Johnson and Jimenez.
AL Rookie of the Year: Brennan Boesch, Tigers, OF (.341/.394/.594, 2.5 WAR) I don't want to give this to Boesch -- a totally mediocre minor leaguer who is happening to have the 61 games of his life in the first 61 games of his major league career -- but there's really no other option right now. His teammate Austin Jackson has been close, and will probably surpass him before the year is over, but right now, Boesch has been the best. Bob Hamelin won a ROY once, too. Runners-up: Jackson and I have no idea. Carlos Santana and his phenomenal 98 PA?
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Braves, OF (.251/.366/.455, 2.0 WAR) A huge slump and an injury have made this a much less exciting pick, but it's still his until Steven Strasburg takes it from him with another three or four good starts. Really, it's pretty close to being Strasburg's already, even after just 37 innings. He's just that good. Runners-up: Strasburg and the Marlins' Gaby Sanchez |
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Written by The Common Man
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Wednesday, 07 July 2010 10:45 |
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Bill waded into some interesting water last week when he talked about the relative merits of Scott Rolen, and whether he’s bound for Cooperstown. Likewise, Craig Calcaterra of HardballTalk commented on Johnny Damon’s pronouncement that he’d like to not have to pay to get in like the rest of us. Rolen’s relatively low and Damon’s high counting stats should, eventually, force writers to reevaluate what it means to be a Hall of Famer, and who should be included among the game’s elite. Let’s go through the relative merits for each player, who are probably going to be considered borderline cases when it’s all said and done by those doing the voting.
Scott Rolen
He’s played more than 140 games just seven times in his 15 seasons, and has stumbled thorugh some truly difficult, injury-riddled campaigns that have left him with a balky back (which could destroy his ability to stay on the field and stay productive at any time). As a result, Rolen’s counting stats are, sadly, fairly pedestrian. He is already 35, but has just 300 homers, fewer than 2000 hits, and fewer than 1200 RBI. Even if he can stay healthy and productive enough to remain a regular player into his age 38-39 seasons, he’s not likely to go far beyond 400 homers, probably won’t make 2500 hits, and will wind up short of 1500 RBI. He has never led either league in a major offensive category, and has only finished in the top 10 of the Triple Crown stats twice (RBI in 2002 and 2004).
While the accumulation of numbers is lacking, particularly for a middle of the order hitter, the accumulation of value is not. He’s set to pass Stan Hack and Frank Baker on the list of 3B with the most batting runs above replacement, which would leave him in ninth with a a good chance to eventually pass Bob Elliott and Ron Santo for seventh (behind A-Rod*, Ed Mathews, Chipper Jones, Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Wade Boggs). And as a fielder, Rolen has already saved more runs above replacement than all but four other 3B (Brooks Robinson, who practically laps the field, Buddy Bell, Clete Boyer, and Robin Ventura). *I’m assuming that A-Rod ends up playing more games at 3B in his career than SS.
The combination of his hitting and fielding makes Rolen, according to Fan Graphs’ WAR system, the 10th most valuable 3B of all time already, and almost certain to pass Graig Nettles before the end of the year(Rolen is at 69.6, Nettles at 71.8). While he may eventually pass Santo (79.3), he is less likely to reach Chipper (currently 84.2), and will not have a chance to touch the upper echelon of Brett, Robinson, Boggs, A-Rod, Mathews, and Schmidt. Still, there must be room in the Hall of Fame for one of the 10 best 3B of all time. Rolen already probably deserves admission, with his Rookie of the Year award, World Series ring, seven Gold Gloves, and six All Star appearances added in as an extra bonus.
Johnny Damon
First of all, let’s acknowledge that Johnny Damon is a fine player who has enjoyed a long and successful career. While Rolen has struggled to stay on the field, Damon ha been extremely durable, and hasn’t played fewer than 140 games in a season since his rookie year in 1995. As such, despite relatively low rate stats (Damon ranks 38th among active players in batting average, 57th in on base percentage, and 91st in slugging percentage), Johnny Damon has kept racking up hits. At 2500 now, he is 8th on the active hit list, and 92nd on the overall list. That said, with his typical health and production, Damon only has to average 140-145 hits over the next three seasons to reach 3000. He also is fifth among active players in runs scored, as a result of hitting high in the lineup for almost all of his career and playing in front of good hitting teams. While just 56th overall, Damon is likely to easily make it into the top 30 before he’s done as long as he continues to play regularly, and every eligible player in the top 30 (except for Rafael Palmeiro) has made the Hall.
However, in a new ballpark, and at 36, he has shown signs of slipping in 2010, and has played more at DH than in the outfield for the first time in his career. While his 104 OPS+ may be acceptable for a good fielding left fielder, Damon seems to be no longer a good fielder, nor primarily a left fielder at this stage in his career, and as a DH he’s not helping the Tigers. Without a return to the outfield more or less full time, it’s hard to see Damon remaining productive enough to stay in the lineup
Ultimately, this is a shame. Johnny Damon’s a popular player, and seems like a decent guy, and looks like the Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer, and I’d like to see him get his numbers. More than that, though, I’d like to see the writers twist themselves into knots to make the case for a player who, according to FanGraphs, has been exactly as valuable as Reggie Sanders and Lenny Dykstra. Other outfielders with a higher WAR than Damon’s 41.4 include Chili Davis, Andy Pafko, Jesse Barfield, Andy Van Slyke, Paul O’Neill, Wally Berger, Amos Otis, and Devon White. Among Hall of Fame outfielders, Damon has proved more valuable than...wait for it...two other inductees, Ross Youngs and Chick Hafey. Inducting Johnny Damon into the Hall of Fame would almost literally lower the threshold of the Hall of Fame, and would rank with Hafey, Fred Lindstrom, and Jim Bottomley as among the most egregious inclusions of all time. Even for a big Hall guy like me, his inclusion doesn’t pass the smell test.
The Johnny Damon debate would call the question of what the Hall of Fame is, what constitutes a “Hall of Famer” and test the convictions of the most stat-hating writers out there. For if you can find a place for Johnny Damon, surely you also have room for Andy Van Slyke? |
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Written by Bill
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Tuesday, 06 July 2010 09:00 |
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Willie Randolph!
In the fall of 1975, Randolph was 21 years old. He had played in 30 so-so games for the Pirates that year, but had hit .339/.405/.478 in 91 games for AAA Charleston.
In December, apparently desperate to acquire 27 year old pitcher Doc Medich, the Pirates packaged Randolph with another Doc(k), Ellis of the famous LSD no-hitter, and Ken Brett, and shipped the three off to the Yankees in return for Medich and...that was it. Just Doc Medich.
Had the trade happened today (can you see the Pirates sending a prospect to the Yankees today, rather than the other way around? But anyway), the Pirates would be absolutely torn apart in the blogosphere. Medich had gone 14-9, 19-15 and 16-16 over the preceding years, averaging 262 innings a year, but had put up ERA+es of just 99 and 106 in the preceding two years. Ellis, 31 before the next season started, was almost certainly a better pitcher all by himself, but was injury prone and had had an off-year in 1975; Brett, similarly, was about as effective as Medich, but had never thrown as many innings.
The Yankees didn't quite get full value out of their robbery, as they traded Brett a month into his Yankee tenure to the White Sox for Carlos May, who didn't give them much. On the other hand, it wasn't good for the Pirates at all. Randolph's replacement, Ronnie Stennett, put up just 1.2 WAR (per BBREF); Medich threw just 179 innings and was the Pirates' worst starter, putting up -0.5 WAR. Brett and Ellis combined for 5.1 WAR, and Randolph added 4.2. The Pirates finished in second place, nine games behind the Phillies. You can do the math yourself. It's not nearly that simple -- Ellis and Brett would be replacing Medich and someone else, and the other four starters were mostly very good -- but it's close enough that you can see those three players carrying the Pirates to the title.
I worry that because Randolph had such a rocky and high-profile managerial career, and because he's not in the Hall of Fame (and rightfully so, I think), people will forget what an excellent player he was. In his first five years with the Yankees -- from age 21 through 25 -- Randolph never had a WAR below 4.0, peaking at an MVP-level 6.4 in 1980 with a great .294/.427/.407 line, leading the league in walks, scoring 99 runs and stealing 30 bases out of 35 tries. Throughout those years, Randolph was a slap-hitting on-base machine who could draw walks, steal some bases and play great defense (he probably didn't get enough credit for his defense, since he played at the same time as the legendary Frank White).He never had any power to speak of, but he could do everything else well.
The strike year of 1981, just when Randolph should've been hitting his peak at age 26, was not kind to him at all; he played just 93 of his team's 107 games and hit just .232/.336/.305 (88 OPS+, 1.8 WAR). He bounced back from that, though, and settled in for most of the next twelve years (seven more with the Yankees and then two with the Dodgers and one each with the A's, Brewers and Mets) as a solidly above average, and occasionally brilliant, second baseman.
Randolph's second-to-last year, 1991 with Milwaukee, at age 36, was one of the best ever by a late-thirties second baseman (a position that, as I've mentioned before, tends to burn players out faster than any other save perhaps catcher). In 124 games he hit a phenomenal .327/.424/.374, and his speed was gone, but he could still play solid defense. His 4.4 WAR is tied for 13th all-time for second basemen aged 35 or older, and aside from one freakish season by Randy Velarde (seriously, check out his 1999--nothing about that year blends in with the rest of his career at all) and a solid year by a very good player in Eddie Stanky, everyone ahead of him is a Hall of Famer or should be: Lajoie, Collins, Hornsby, Whitaker, Gehringer, Kent, Morgan.
In all, Randolph ends up with 60.5 WAR, 13th among second basemen, shockingly close behind Sandberg and actually a full win ahead of Jeff Kent. He's well ahead of Tony Lazzeri, Joe Gordon, Billy Herman, Johnny Evers, Bobby Doerr, and Red Schoendienst, all Hall of Famers. If you wanted to put him in the Hall, I guess I wouldn't argue with you too much, as long as you put Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich in first. |
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Written by Bill
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Monday, 05 July 2010 10:19 |
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There's a lot of grumbling about the fan voting for the All-Star game, and it's usually justified. In the end, though, they do about as decent a job as I think you can expect a massive group of heavily biased voters to do. This year, I think they did it just about exactly right. It came down to the final day for two potential travesties, but David Wright beat Placido Polanco and Justin Morneau held off Mark Teixeira, and all was well.
The real problem is putting the managers of last year's World Series teams in charge of picking the rest of the team. You hope that the fans' biases more or less even out (they don't, of course, but at least there's some kind of balance), but then for the bench players and pitchers, you're completely at the mercy of the biases of one guy.
And this year, as is the case in many years, the result is pretty disappointing. Yankee pitchers C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes have been above average pitchers this year and sit 16th and 21st in WAR, respectively, among the 53 qualified American League starting pitchers. They have high win totals, because they pitch for a very good team, but pretty mediocre ERAs. (The surprising thing is that Girardi didn't pick their teammate Andy Pettitte, who has about the same win total and underlying numbers but a much prettier ERA -- he's already indicated that Pettitte will probably replace Sabathia on the team). No Yankee pitcher has been nearly as effective this season as Francisco Liriano, who misses the team because he has just six "wins" and because he doesn't play for the manager's team, or Jered Weaver, who even has a sparkling 2.82 ERA but falls short by virtue of playing all the way over on the west coast (in the host stadium, coincidentally).
The bias isn't limited to the manager's own team; it also extends to the guys who tend to beat that manager's team. The Yankees have had a really tough time with the Blue Jays so far this year, so it shouldn't be surprising that John Buck, Jose Bautista and Vernon Wells all make the team, while the White Sox's Alexis Rios, who is far more deserving than either Jay outfielder but played in just one of the Sox' three games against the Yankees earlier this season, is stuck at home. (The Sox' lone representative is Matt Thornton, a very good middle reliever with a WAR one-half of Rios'.) [I realized after I wrote this that both Jays outfielders were selected by player ballot, not by Girardi. I forgot they even had one of those. But Girardi's still on the hook for C.C., and none of this helps the disaster below at all.]
Things in the NL are just plain ugly. One needs look no further than first base, where the most overrated player in baseball, Ryan Howard, was selected as one of two reserves at the position. Howard's .293 batting average would be his highest since 2006, but every other facet of his game is way off; he's got a near-career-low .349 OBP thanks to a career-low 7.5% walk rate, a carer-low .502 SLG, and is on pace for a career-low 30 homers. His defense has also fallen way off, at least according to UZR. He's 8th among NL 1Bs in WAR, making him right around average for a starter at the position.
The Reds' Joey Votto, meanwhile, is first among 1Bs and 2nd among all NL players in WAR. He's ahead of Howard in batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR and runs, and is just two behind him in RBI. He even has 7 steals to Howard's 0 (though he's also been caught 4 times to Howard's 1) and leads all NL 1Bs in UZR, seven runs better than Howard. You could argue that Howard is being rewarded for his second half last year, in which Howard hit .305/.382/.621...but Votto hit .300/.399/.547, so for the last year as a whole, there's no question that Votto has been the better player. He's been the better player, in fact, since the day he arrived full-time in the league; Votto's 12.1 WAR since 2008 crush Howard's 8.9 over the same stretch. You can define "All-Star" in any number of reasonable ways, and under every single one of thom, Votto fits it a lot better than Howard does.
The NL All-Star Team is managed, of course, by Charlie Manuel, who also just happens to manage Ryan Howard's Phillies. He's been watching Howard do his thing all year, and while Votto did go 6-for-13 with two homers against Manuel's boys in a series less than a week ago, I guess Charlie wasn't paying attention.
Then Charlie went and selected Omar Infante, the Braves' second-best super-utility guy after Martin Prado, despite Prado and Tim Hudson both being named to the team. Infante's .309 batting average is pretty and all, but at 0.5 WAR, he's been about as valuable as Juan Pierre and Jason Kendall. I can only assume that Manuel remembers Infante's seven games against the Phillies (in which he's hit a pretty empty .353)...but then, I guess he's forgotten about Ryan Zimmerman's four games against them (.385/.429/.846)?
With these two picks, Manuel, much more than anything you might argue the fan vote has ever done, has made a mockery of the All-Star Game. Naming Howard and Infante in place of Votto and Zimmerman misses the mark by so far that it's a bit like putting together an all-time team and naming Mo Vaughn and Lenny Harris in place of Gehrig and Schmidt.
There's got to be a better way, right? Maybe let the players and coaches league-wide pick the reserves and pitchers? Maybe bar the manager from naming anyone from his own team (let other managers decide if any of that manager's guys belong)? Maybe finally admit that the All-Star game is a farce and no longer worth paying even a moment's attention to?
Yeah, I think I'll go with that last one. |
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Written by Bill
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Friday, 02 July 2010 09:00 |
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And I'm back! There was the server issue (which is not resolved, per se, but stable), then I got really busy. But I'm here now...for a little while. We're having a second child sometime in the next three weeks, and when that happens I suspect things will be quite slow around here for a while. But between now and then, I'll do my level best to bring you your daily things. Like this:
The sad thing is that if I were on top of things and writing every day, I could've been one of the first to bring this up. Having no idea that Scott Rolen was about to hit his 300th homer, I just sort of independently noticed that Rolen, injury troubles and perceived early decline and all, had put together a really, really fine career. But then he went and hit #300, and everybody's asking the same question (most dismissing it immediately, but there was a great one I read that I was sure was by Patrick Sullivan but can no longer find): is it time to start having the Rolen Hall of Fame discussion?
I'll give you my answer right up front: yes. Not only is it time for the discussion, but the result of that discussion ought to be the realization that, yes, Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer.
In discussing the ridiculous omission of Ron Santo from the Hall a few months ago, I talked a bit about how terribly neglected third basemen have been. And I can't find it right now, but I know I've discussed the cause of it elsewhere: nobody really quite seems to get what third base is about. It's a difficult position to play, on par with second base in both difficulty and importance (3Bs make many fewer plays than 2Bs, but on average they're much harder plays to make). Thus, it's very rare that one player will have elite-level ability at the both of the entirely unrelated skills of hitting and playing the position. We get this with second base; the offensive standards are appreciably lower. Nobody would try to tell you that Ryne Sandberg, Bobby Doerr or Red Schoendienst would be in the Hall today if they'd primarily played first base or right field (not sure how they've entirely missed the boat on Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker, but we usually get that). But with third base, we don't get it at all. We call them "corner infielders" and expect them to hit more or less like first basemen, when the reality is that hitting like a first baseman and fielding like a third baseman are really, really, really hard to do together. If you find a guy who's great at fielding the position and merely a very good hitter -- like Rolen -- you're looking at a great player.
So we need to start appreciating third basemen. But let's start appreciating this particular third baseman a little more right now. First, the raw/traditional stats (through Wednesday), and his all-time rank among players who have played more than half of their games at third base (with a minimum of 6,000 PA for rate stats):
PA: 7671 (27) AB: 6634 (35) R: 1129 (17) H: 1886 (26) RBI: 1182 (14) HR: 300 (13) BA: .284 (22) OBP: .370 (12) SLG: .501 (4) OPS: .871 (4) OPS+: 125 (7)
And the traditional extra stuff: Rookie of the Year, five All-Star appearances, one top-five MVP finish, one (only one?!) Silver Slugger Award, seven Gold Gloves, one great World Series winning performance (he hit .421/.476/.737 for the Cards in 2006). It's an impressive resume, and it beats the hell out of, say, Hall of Frischers George Kell and Freddie Lindstrom, but it doesn't really scream "Hall of Famer."
But that doesn't reflect his outstanding defense. Yeah, there are the seven Gold Gloves...but he almost certainly deserved even more of them. Per BBREF, his 112 fielding runs are 56th all time, at any position, and 10th all time among 3Bs. And most of those guys ahead of him (on either list) are guys who just couldn't hit at all, guys like Lee Tannehill and Art Fletcher. Of the 55 players ahead of Rolen in fielding runs above average, only seven are also ahead of him in batting runs above average: Clemente, Bonds, Mays, Yaz, Kaline, Schmidt, and turn-of-the-last-century great George Davis. All seven, as you probably know, are in the Hall. Hell, six of the seven don't even require two names.
Add it all up, and BBREF's system gives him 64.4 WAR, pretty comfortably in Hall of Fame territory. That's tied with Ernie Banks for 118th all-time, and 83rd among position players. Of those 82 in front of him, 17 are either not yet eligible for the Hall or permanently ineligible. Seven are not in the Hall but should be (Bill Dahlen, Whitaker, Grich, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell, and Santo). Fifty-seven are in the Hall. That leaves one, Kenny Lofton...and, well, I think he belongs, too, but you can argue over that one. In any case, Rolen is 0.9 wins behind Lofton in 1600 fewer plate appearances, and will probably pass him this year. Some of the many thousands of players who are not ahead of him on that list, along with Banks, are Home Run Baker, Al Simmons, Sammy Sosa, Roberto Alomar, Sandberg, Mike Piazza, Joe Cronin, Vlad Guerrero, Willie Stargell, and Harmon Killebrew.
By no means am I saying it's a no-brainer. Reasonable people can disagree on this one (at least until he puts up another year or two like the one he's currently having). But I want more third basemen in the Hall. Even after Santo finally gets in and Chipper and A-Rod eventually join him, there will be just thirteen, fewer than at every position except catcher (and will probably still have the fewest, since Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez are headed that direction as well). Rolen is certainly the best one left after those guys, and will probably pass Santo before he's done. His overall production is well within the range of Hall worthiness, and I think he belongs. |
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Written by Bill
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Friday, 25 June 2010 09:00 |
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A s TCM noted yesterday, Bloguin has been transitioning to a new server, and it's hit a few bumps in the road that haven't quite been resolved yet. While I don't blame them for anything and am looking forward to eventually being on a faster server (I hope), I don't feel inclined to write a long post that might disappear at any time (or not appear at all). So instead, here's a collection of what I think are some really interesting bits of baseball trivia I've learned recently:
- Did you know that the Phillies used to be called the Blue Jays? I suppose that might be one of those things that lots and lots of people know, but that I just never came across somehow. But anyway, it's true. From 1943 to 1949. It was never their official nickname, but apparently it's good enough for BBREF. My other favorite forgotten nicknames -- Chicago Orphans, Boston Beaneaters, Cleveland Naps, etc. -- all come from a good three decades earlier.
- Billy Wagner has never started a game in the major leagues, as you'd probably guess. Before being called up to the majors, though, he never pitched in a game that he didn't start. He's made some relief appearances in rehab stints since then.
- Del Ennis' real first name was Delmer. Del Unser's real first name was Delbert. Six big leaguers have had the first name Delbert, including three others who went by "Del" (Del Bates, Del Rice and Del Wilber). There have been five Delmers, and all five went by Del (the others are Del Baker, Del Paddock and two guys named Del Young). Delmer was Del Lundgren's middle name (his first name was Ebin, improbably). Other Dels have been named Delphia (Del Bissonette), Delmar (Del Crandall), Dellos (Del Gainer), George Elmer?! (Del Howard), Adelbert (Del Mason), and Derrill (Del Pratt). Delwyn Young and Delmon Young, whose first names are both unique in MLB history, are missing a golden opportunity to run the historical Del Young count to four.
- Since 1920 (and skipping that weird Retrosheet dark period from 1940-51), only 15 pitchers in history have had two consecutive games of at least 10 strikeouts without a walk, and nobody's ever done it thrice in a row. Which makes it pretty impressive that Stephen Strasburg did that twice in his first three career starts, and then on Wednesday missed doing it a second time in a row by one strikeout. What's more, those 15 names (with the arguable exception of James Shields and Rich Harden) were all really, really, really good pitchers: Santana, Schilling, Unit, Brown, Clemens, Ryan, etc. Strasburg is part of a slightly less exclusive club that's gotten at least nine strikeouts with no walks two games in a row. There are 35 of those, but again, nobody's done it three times in a row. Something to keep in mind for his next start, scheduled for next Monday night on ESPN against the Braves (who, notably, are quite a bit more patient than the Pirates, White Sox or Royals, and actually lead the majors in walk rate).
- Speaking of Strasburg, this isn't a fact so much as a link, but the link has a lot of facts in it: Maury Brown has a feature called The Strasburg Tracker where he tracks all sorts of fascinating information about each Strasburg start, encompassing both his performance and (more interestingly) the impressive effect he's had on attendance and ticket prices. Check it out.
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Written by The Common Man
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Wednesday, 23 June 2010 22:14 |
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Note, this was written prior to Strasburg's excellent start (6 innings, 9 Ks, one run allowed) in a loss to the Royals. Server problems prevented me from posting it until now.
Everyone has been, rightfully, very excited for the young career of Stephen Strasburg, such that he’s even being mentioned as a potential All Star after just thee starts. And it has been an incredible start for St. Stephen (32 Ks, 5 BBs, 2-0, 1.86). But it’s not the most impressive start I can remember. Not when there’s a man called Milacki. After all, Bob Milacki started three games at the end of 1988 in which he gave up 2 runs in 25 innings (with 18 Ks and 9 BBs), and finished the year 2-0 with a 0.72 ERA. And Bob Milacki was no one’s idea of an All Star.
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Read more... [The Saga of Bob Milacki: Your bi-weekly Strasburg wet blanket]
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Written by Bill
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Tuesday, 22 June 2010 09:00 |
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A little more than a year ago, I wrote a post about Josh Hamilton. It was June 2nd, and he'd played in just 35 of his team's first 50 games, hitting an ugly .240/.290/.456 in the games he did play, and he was about to go in for an(other) MRI. Here's (part of) what I wrote:
I love Josh Hamilton. I just want to see him hitting baseballs a long way for many more years. I know I'm not exactly alone in that sentiment, but I just don't think you can deny that the world is a slightly better place when Josh Hamilton is playing baseball (and playing well). He's 28 years old. I would like to see him smiling and having fun and making the game look easy for another ten years or so. Given all he's put himself through and all he's done to pull himself back, that doesn't seem like too much to ask.
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Read more... [I've Never Been Happier to Be Wrong]
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Written by Bill
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Monday, 21 June 2010 09:00 |
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Rick Sutcliffe!
Sutcliffe was called "The Red Baron" in his playing days, and pretty much just goes by "Sut" now as a broadcaster. That seems to me a kind of sad commentary on the progression of our society. Or maybe it just tells you what people think of him as a broadcaster.
It was about this time 26 years ago that the best thing that has ever happened (professionally), to Rick Sutcliffe happened, all because both he and his team had gotten off to a poor start. On June 13, sitting at 22-34 and already 20 1/2 games out of first place, Cleveland shipped Sutcliffe, a former Rookie of the Year and one-time All-Star who was set to be a free agent for the first time after the season, to the Cubs for a package that included young outfielders Joe Carter and Mel Hall (actually a pretty nice package for Cleveland).
For the rest of that 1984 season, Sutcliffe pitched very, very well. Coming in with a career K/9 of less than 5.5, Sutcliffe was suddenly striking out more than a batter per inning while walking just 2.3 batters per nine, a better than 40% reduction from his career norm of about 4.0. In 150 1/3 innings with the Cubs, he put up a 2.69 ERA (and pitched better than that, with a FIP of 2.28). The Cubs won 18 of his 20 starts, and Sutcliffe himself went 16-1. On June 19, the day of Sutcliffe's first start, the Cubs were half a game behind the Mets and two behind the Phillies, at 34-29. From then out, they played .633 ball from then on out and buried the rest of the division, finishing 6.5 games ahead of the Mets, who'd been a half game ahead of them in second place pre-Sutcliffe.
To the baseball media's way of thinking, what this meant was that Rick Sutcliffe was solely responsible for the Cubs winning the division. 16-1, right? The Cubs turned their fortunes around by 7 games (vis-a-vis the Mets), and Sutcliffe himself was +15 games!
Sutcliffe didn't just win the Cy Young Award; he won the Cy Young Award unanimously. 19 year old Rookie of the Year Dwight Gooden threw 68 more innings than Sutcliffe in the NL, yet gave up two fewer home runs (7 to 9). He also posted a lower ERA (2.60/2.69), struck out an eye-popping 276, won 17 games, and put up a crazy 1.69 FIP. Yet Gooden didn't get a single first-place vote. Bruce Sutter threw 122 2/3 innings (just 28 fewer than Sutcliffe's NL total), posted a 1.54 ERA and saved a then-record 45 games; didn't convince a single soul that he was better than Sutcliffe.
Sutcliffe seems like a pretty good guy (if a rather uninformative broadcaster and once kind of an embarrassment), and I don't mean to disparage him on his birthday...but then, he did his job brilliantly. It's not his fault the writers who voted on the award had no idea what they were looking at. Sutcliffe had a great three and a half months, but there's just no way you can look at his numbers next to Gooden's (or Sutter's, or one or two other guys) and think Sutcliffe was the best or most valuable pitcher in the National League. The various WAR systems disagree on how much the pitchers were actually worth, but they all come out to about the same result: by FanGraphs' WAR, Sutcliffe's 5.1 NL WAR (and 6.4 overall) falls well behind Gooden's 8.6; by BBREF's WAR, Sutcliffe is 11th in the NL at 3.7, behind not only Gooden's 5.4 and Sutter's 4.7 but Mario Soto, Alejandro Pena, and Ricks Rhoden and Mahler, among others.
This was brought up a few times back in 2008, when CC Sabathia went 11-2 in 130 innings for the Brewers and finished 5th in the Cy Young balloting, including one first-place vote. The difference, though, is that Tim Lincecum's 2008, while excellent, was not Dwight Gooden's 1984. If you combine his time with Cleveland (and I don't know why you would for an NL award, but whatever), Sabathia really was the best pitcher in baseball that year. In 1984, by contrast, a good pitcher moved to the NL and had 150 really, really good innings...and was allowed to steal the award from one of the most talented young pitchers the game has ever seen, who had had a phenomenal full season. The voters have made worse decisions in terms of player quality -- Morneau and 2006 and Dawson in 1987 were further away from being the MVP than Sutcliffe was from being the best pitcher here -- but this might be their single most obvious miss. Dwight Gooden was your 1984 Cy Young Award-deserving pitcher. That's all there is to it.
Sutcliffe had three or four really good seasons (including his Rookie of the Year campaign of 1984, an ERA title in 1982, and his league-leading 18-win season in 1987) and a lot of pretty poor ones. It all added up to a guy who was right around an average starting pitcher in nearly 400 starts, which is awfully valuable (30.0 WAR). But with three All-Star appearances, a Rookie of the Year Award, a Cy Young Award, two other top-five Cy Young finishes and a top-five MVP finish, he very well may be the most highly decorated average pitcher who has ever lived. |
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Written by The Common Man
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Wednesday, 16 June 2010 23:13 |
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My apologies to Bill, as I had hoped to get a post up earlier today. But then work went to hell and I was unable to get to it until now. But it’s still Wednesday, so here’s your daily something:
We have all enjoyed the career of Junkballin’ Jamie Moyer. He’s not a Hall of Famer, mind you. After 24 seasons in the Major Leagues, Moyer has managed to win 265, against 201 losses. His 3.23 ERA (4.23) is only 4% better than the leagues he pitched in. In almost 4000 innings, Moyer has struck out less than 2400 batters. And his average fastball hasn’t topped 82 miles per hour since 2002. hat said, Moyer has enjoyed something close to banner season in 2010. He’s the oldest pitcher since Phil Niekro. He’s among the ten oldest men to play a major league game, and mny of the othes (Satchel Paige, Minnie Minoso, Jim O’Rourke, Deacon McGuire were novelty acts. Moyer, meanwhile, has managed to hang above replacement level, has two complete games and a shutout this year, and tonight managed to beat the World Champion Yankees. Moyer went 8 strong innings, striking out five and giving up only 3 hits (two of which were solo homers).
And sure, it’s hilarious to make fun of how old Jamie Moyer is, as the Mariners did all the way back in 2006.
But it’s more revealing to really consider Moyer’s career in a larger context, beyond his statistics and beyond he Methuselah jokes. Here are a few things to consider:
- Jamie Moyer has pitched during he administrations of five US Presidents, Reagan, H.W. Bush, Clinton, W. Bush, and Obama
- Jamie Moyer debuted with Greg Maddux on the 1986 Chicago Cubs. Maddux was three years younger. Maddux retired two years ago with 355 victories; Moyer’s still pitching, and is just 89 wins behind him.
- Jamie Moyer played with Ron Cey, who played with Hoyt Wilhelm, who played with Bob Elliot, who played with Heine Manush, who played with Ty Cobb. That’s five degrees of separation.
- Jamie Moyer debuted on June 14, 1986. Two months later, Nick Adenhart was born in Maryland. Adenhart was tragically killed when his car was hit by a drunk driver in April of last year. Adenhart’s entire life including his major league career took place during the career of Jamie Moyer.
- In addition to Maddux, Moyer also outlasted Mark Grace, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Juan Gonzalez, Kenny Rogers, Armando Benitez, and Nomar Garciparra, despite being on the roster already when each them debuted.
- And, perhaps most impotantly, Moyer is the last remaining active player from the 1988 Panini Baseball Sticker album that I tried desperately to complete in the winter of ‘88. Just look:
 
Alas, it’s 22 years later. My sticker book still isn’t finished, but neither is Jamie Moyer. And at this rate, I just might have time to get done before he does. Anybody have any doubles? |
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