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I'm 100% certain there's nothing I can say about that game last night that hasn't been said by now, except this: I was at Game Seven in 1991, and I'm not sure I've ever seen a game better than that one. Maybe as good, but probably not better.
Anyway, I thought I'd do the predictable thing and give you some predictions for the 2009 MLB Postseason. Only, they're not my predictions; writers' and experts' predicitons are uniformly hot air and a guess. Rather, all of these "predictions" are made by a coin -- a 1983 nickel, to be exact -- flipped once, heads for the team with the better regular-season record and tails for t'other. The hot air (attempting to justify the nickel's pick, as a real person might) is mine, but the picks are not. When it's all over, we'll revisit this (5 points for the WS champ, 3 for LCSes, 1 each for the division series) and just see how the nickel did against the experts.
Silly? Yes. A ridiculously overblown way to make a rather simple and straightforward point? You bet. But...away we go!
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ALDS 1: Yankees over Twins. Well, this one is pretty obvious, isn't it? The Twins played a four-and-a-half-hour game and used eight pitchers (though none of them, except the utterly expendable Keppel, were really ridden hard). The Yankees are the best team in the Major Leagues, while the Twins are merely the best team in the Major Leagues' worst division. The Yanks have home field advantage. The Twins don't have Justin Morneau. Yanks in four.
ALDS 2: Red Sox over Angels. The Angels won 97 games to the Sox' 95, but the Sox are almost certainly the better team, with a slightly better run differential and in a much tougher division, and with a more fearsome three- or four-man starting rotation. Really, these are two pretty evenly-matched teams, with similarly strong offenses and similarly average defenses. The nickel likes the Sox' slight pitching edge and postseason experience to push them over the top. Sox in five.
NLDS 1: Rockies over Phillies Now these are two evenly-matched teams. There's very little difference in their offensive and pitching numbers, and they even have similar teams: high-scoring, just-good-enough pitching and defense. The nickel likes the Rox' momentum -- they'd won six of seven to make an unlikely charge at the division title before dropping two to the champion Dodgers, while the Phils lost three of their final four -- and the fact that the Rockies have two or three decent left-handed relievers who can turn Ryan Howard from a Hall of Famer into a backup catcher in tight late-inning situations. Rockies in five.
NLDS 2: Cardinals over Dodgers The nickel likes a pair of what are likely to be considered moderate upsets in the National League. The Cards won four fewer games than the Dodgers in the NL, and both teams kind of sputtered to the finish, the Cardinals dropping eight out of ten and the Dodgers losing five in a row before finally pulling it together and clinching the division against the Rockies. The nickel likes the Cardinals' pitching options, with the third, sixth and eighth best pitchers in the league according to FIP (the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw comes in fifth, but no one else is close). The pitching will carry the day, and Albert Pujols will carry the offense. Cards in four.
ALCS: Sox over Yankees The "tails" flip tells me that the Sox will upset the best team in the Majors in a series that's sure to be talked about way too much for the next five or seven years. Spunky lil' Dustin Pedroia and just-as-good-as-Tex Kevin Youkilis come up with some big hits, and while Beckett falters, Jon Lester does his best Josh-Beckett-in-2003 impression. J.D. Drew finally makes Sox fans realize that he's far and away the best outfielder (and maybe the best player) on the team, but then in the end, Nick Green scratches out a few scrappy little hits and takes the MVP, Eckstein-style. Sox in six.
NLCS: Cardinals over Rockies The story of the series, yet again, is the Cards' big three -- Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro -- and maybe John Smoltz rediscovers some of the old magic with a great game in there too. The Rockies are no match for the guys in red, as Pujols and Holliday provide all the offense the Cards' pitchers need. Cardinals in four.
World Series: Red Sox over Cardinals In a rematch of the 2004 Series, the result is much the same, with much less fanfare and one less bloody sock. The Sox, the more balanced team from the much better league, simply overwhelm the Cardinals in every aspect of the game, and not even Pujols can save them now. Your World Series MVP is J.D. Drew, though Sox fans will forever think it was Nick Green because they think of the Yankees series as having actually been the World Series. Sox in four.
Not bad, actually. I kind of masochistically wish the coin had come up tails on the Twins/Yanks series, because it was going to be hard to explain away that one, even falling back on things I don't actually believe in like momentum and leadership. But the coin did what the coin did, and it looks entirely feasible to me. We'll see how the coin does in a few weeks.
So now I'm trying to track down the nickel's competition (so far I've got a weird collection of ESPN "experts," Devon from Bleacher Report, a bunch of folks at FanHouse, the guys from Talking Chicago Baseball, and this guy from a California college newspaper -- late adds, the guy from PeteAbe's old blog, Rex from i94, Zach from MLB Notebook, and the folks at Walkoff Walk). If you happen to know of any more, I'd love it if you'd post them in the comments below or send to the email address to the right (on the front page). Or post your own!
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