Peeing in Your Cheerios
Written by The Common Man   
Wednesday, 09 June 2010 14:43
Bill had a short piece up yesterday about Stephen Strasburg's amazing debut, but I have to put in my two cents too.  There are not enough superlatives to really cover how exciting it was to watch live.  It just felt like things were changing.  Craig Calcaterra, even watching on tape delay, felt it too, "Strap yourselves in people, because we're taking off on one hell of a ride."  But are we?  Are we really?  (note: I hope so.)

The data certainly is compelling.  Seven innings.  14 strikeouts (against 21 batters).  0 walks.  Four groundouts versus two fly balls (though, admittedly, one went into the right field stands).  Via Nick Steiner of Hardball Times, we learned that, "Despite throwing two different fastballs in the upper nineties [with significant movement], his changeup might just be his best pitch. Thrown about as hard as the average pitcher's fastball he might do well to try and slow that pitch down just a bit, but with a solid speed differential compared to his fastball and absolutely sick vertical movement (about five inches more drop than the average changeup) there is little to complain about.  He then follows that up with a curveball that might just be better than his changeup (which much just be better than his fastballs).... According to FanGraphs, his curveball has averaged about 8 inches of horizontal movement and -8 inches of vertical movement this year. Well, Strasburg's curveball averaged 7.4 inches of horizontal movement and -8.1 inches of vertical movement last night."  It's all transformative.  Forget the Pirates, if Strasburg can kind of velocity and break on his pitches, he will be almost unhittable for any team in either league.

That said, I hate to be the guy who pees in the Cheerios and ruins breakfast, but I need to be.  To my knowledge, we've never seen a human being able to throw a baseball like Stephen Strasburg.  His consistent velocity and movement (look at how tightly the pitches are packed in this Hardball Times graph) are unmatched.  But we know nothing about how long or how well Strasburg will be able to maintain that level of performance.  We don't know if a human elbow and shoulder can withstand the torque and force that are acting on them.  We don't know how many bullets he has in his gun.  As Rob Neyer said in his chat yesterday, "As brilliantly talented as Strasburg is, he's probably not going to win 200 games. I'm guessing the right answer is 100-150 (if you're betting)."

So everyone is celebrating and annointing Stephen Strasburg today, and rightfully so, I can't help but feel some trepidation.  I think the most important three words to describe Stephen Strasburg's career path from here are, "we don't know."  We don't know how high his talent will carry him on the list of the greatest pitchers in baseball history.  But we also don't know whether that talent can be realized, given the limitations of human physiology.  So, by all means enjoy the ride.  Just don't be surprised if it's a short one.

The Common Man blogs 2-3 times a week at his own site, and you can also follow him on Twitter.


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