[Note: I had a blast doing the podcast yesterday with TCM and Larry. Serious technical problems at the beginning, but it got better. Go here and just try to stick it out through the first 8-10 minutes.]

Well, that didn't go as planned.

I wasn't shy about sharing my optimism before this year started. That's unusual for me. I always try to be something a little worse than realistic, to keep my hopes in check, but this spring, I looked and looked and looked at it and just couldn't possibly envision a world in which the Twins would win fewer than 90 games. And I looked at the rest of the division, and I just couldn't see any of those teams finishing within fewer than four or five games of the Twins.

After starting out just perfectly, however -- they were 31-20 with a 4.5 game lead at the end of May -- things have gone quite abruptly south. They were just 12-15 in June, and started July 3-7. When the Twins take the field for the second "half" of the season today (for most teams it's actually about 55% over, but whatever), they'll do it as a third-place team with a 46-42 record, 3 1/2 games behind the White Sox, 3 behind the Tigers, and on pace for just 84 wins.

But you know what? I still believe. A 44-30 second "half" (.595) would get the Twins to exactly 90 wins, and would probably be enough to win the division. I think they'll do better than that. Here's why:

• They've still been the best team. The standings don't look good, but the Twins still have the best run differential in the division (+36 compared to Chicago's +30 and Detroit's +11). That wouldn't mean much if there had been huge real changes after the Twins' initial hot start, but there haven't been, among any of the teams. And the Twins' run scoring and prevention aren't helped by great luck with runners in scoring position (actually they've had pretty bad luck with RISP, though the Tigers have been even worse). The Sox are 17-9 in one-run games, while the Twins are 15-13; that alone makes up almost the entire difference between the two teams. Maybe it won't, of course, but I'd bet on the luck evening out.
• They're healthy (or healthier). The downturn happened at about the time that J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson both went down with injuries. Both are back now, and the team was back at full strength for a week or so...but was still terrible. Hardy and Hudson have OPS'ed .667 and .609, respectively, since their returns. Both, and especially Hudson, are better than that.
  Of course, the assumption that has to be made here is that Justin Morneau's concussion is a short-term issue, and that he will be back sometime soon.
  Also, once they really are back at full strength, the Cuddyer-at-3B experiment has to end, Punto needs to play third and Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Jim Thome need to share the corner outfield and DH spots, in keeping with the original plan. Sitting Punto, the team's best defensive player saps most of the value of having Hardy back.
• Joe Mauer is still Joe Mauer. He's actually hitting more line drives this year than last, and yet his batting average is down 72 points. He's hitting more fly balls, and yet his power is way, way down and he's already grounded into more double plays than he did in all of 2009. Mauer wasn't likely to hit .365 or 28 homers again no matter what, and I hope no one expected him to. But he's been the best player in the league for most of the last four years, and I don't see any reason to believe he won't be the same in the second half of 2010. I'd expect 10-12 homers and an OPS over .875 from today, July 15, through the end of the season.
• Francisco Liriano. Lirano has pitched like an ace all year, and currently sports a 2.19 FIP and 2.97 xFIP, but just a 3.84 ERA. This despite pitching in front of a team that, unlikely as it may seem, has sported one of the best defenses in baseball, and despite being a groundball pitcher pitching in front of an infield that probably is the best in baseball (when Cuddyer is in the outfield). I wouldn't be surprised if Liriano became something like the Ubaldo Jimenez of the second half -- crazy low ERA, lots of "wins."
• Brennan Boesch, Austin Jackson, and Paul Konerko. These three guys are driving the Twins' competitors, and all are playing way over their heads. As I've mentioned, nothing in Boesch's track record suggests he's capable of what he's currently doing. Moreover, what he's currently doing is being propped up by a crazy .384 BABIP; his minor league BABIP was about .310. Similarly, as I noted, Jackson's hot start was supported by a completely unsustainable .532 BABIP; since I wrote that on May 5, his BABIP has been a still-high .352, and yet he's hit just .255/.308/.352. I just don't think either of those guys are quality major league bats (though I think Jackson deserves his spot anyway due to excellent defense), and I suspect they'll be something a drag on the Tigers from this point forward. Konerko, of course, is toward the other end of his career arc, and hadn't hit 32 homers, slugged .500 or OBPed .355 in four years; he's currently hitting .299/.382/.560 and is, along with the similarly surprising Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios, carrying the White Sox offense. I think we'll see the Sox struggle mroe and more to score runs as Paulie's bat cools down (and maybe those other guys' do, too).
• Nick Blackburn will not make 15 starts in the second half. This is on faith. Blackburn, as David Goliebewski noted the other day, has stumbled off of that very thin line he was walking. He sports a 6.84 ERA after 16 starts, and has more or less earned it, with a 5.90 FIP and a 5.14 xFIP. Cliff Lee is off the board and Oswalt and Haren are probably too pricey, but any number of starters out there and likely to be available -- Ted Lilly, Fausto Carmona, Ben Sheets, maybe even Kevin Millwood -- have a decent chance to make for a 2-3 win improvement over Blackburn from here on out (unless Blackburn reverts back to his old ways, which in itself would be about a 2-win improvement). They've got to make a move. They just have to. Right?
• Strength of schedule. The Twins are done with the Yankees and Red Sox, and have already played 12 of their games against Detroit. There's one series left with the Rays, one with the Angels, two with the Rangers and three with the White Sox (who, for reasons above, I just can't look at as a good team), and everyone else is below .500. Lots and lots of CLEs, KCRs and SEAs on that schedule. The Sox and Tigers, meanwhile, have to face each other more than the Twins have to face either of them, The Tigers have the same series against the Rays and Rangers plus one each against the Yankees and Red Sox, while the White Sox have the Yankees and haven't faced the Red Sox even once yet (but have finished with the Rangers and Rays). The Tigers have a much tougher schedule, and the White Sox appear to me to have at least a slightly tougher schedule (and just aren't as strong a team).
• Justin Morneau isn't a first-half player. I believe this is a myth. Yeah, the differences in his career numbers are pretty stark (.939 first-half OPS, .791 second-half). But that comes from two years -- 2005, 2007 and 2009 -- at least two (and possibly all three) of which can be directly traced to injuries. In 2008, he dipped slightly in the second half, but not a ton (.903/.831), despite playing in all 162 games. In 2006, he OPSed .939 in the first half and .930 in the second. He'll drop off some this year (he's already started to), simply because there aren't many .350/.440/.620 players out there. But assuming a full and quick recovery from the head injury, I think the Twins can continue to expect one of the best hitters in the league, and the best 1B defense in the game. A decline from Miguel Cabrera is almost equally likely; I'll take Morneau's defense.

So I'm not worried. It would've been nice to see the Twins' first half (and especially the past month and a half) go a little more smoothly, but I see all kinds of reasons to look forward to the second half just as much as I was the first.