Quick (by my standards) notes on three things that happened yesterday that I really don't understand:

• The Braves sign Takashi Saito. For one year and approximately $3 million (plus incentives he's unlikely to reach).
  Now, I could get behind Wednesday's Wagner signing, and there's something to be said for a body who knows what he wants and goes out and gets it (two big-name relievers in the first two days of real free agency!). And the deal itself isn't all that bad; if Saito is healthy enough to throw 70 or 80 innings, even with his clearly diminishing abilities at what will be age 40, he'll be well worth the price.
  But he's only thrown over 70 innings once in the four years he's been over here. With Wagner and Saito, the Braves now have two really good relievers (Wagner much better than Saito, but they're both still pretty good), with long recent injury histories and a combined 2010 seasonal age of seventy-eight. I'd be...concerned.
  And here's what I'd be really concerned about: as discussed yesterday, Gonzalez and Soriano could still be Braves. I'm sure that Wren wouldn't do this without some assurance that one or (more likely) both are going to decline their arbitration offers, but the fact is that they haven't done it yet, and their fate is entirely in their own hands right now. If whatever deals their agents thought they could work out fall through, or interest just isn't as high as they thought, they could latch right back on to that arbitration pacifier. I'm not sure even Bobby Cox (whose unconventional use of Soriano and Gonzalez really impressed me this year) can get optimum usage out of all four of those guys.
  I don't think anybody else was going to jump on Saito this quickly, and even if someone did, I don't think the remaining market was without adequate replacements for him. Big thumbs up to the Wagner signing; big "huh?" to this one. Pulled the trigger awfully quickly
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• The Phillies sign Placido Polanco. For three years and $18 million. If you want Polanco, and he's demanding a three-year deal, I think that's a fair price for his age 34-36 years. I figure (without thinking about it too hard) that he'll be worth much more than $6 million in 2010, right around it in 2011, and at it or a little less in 2011.
  But he's a second baseman. The Phillies have the best one of those in the Majors. So Polanco comes in to play third base, replacing the departing Pedro Feliz. Polanco hasn't played more than 21 games in a season at that position since 2002 (with the Phils), and has played as many MLB games there since 2005 as I have.
  This probably isn't a big deal. FanGraphs says replacement value at 2B is pretty much exactly the same as 3B -- that is, Polanco doesn't lose any value in the move, the way one would from a move from SS to CF or from 2B to 1B.
  But. First, I can't believe I'm going to play the part of the crotchety anti-stats guy for a second post in a row, but I just can't quite make myself believe that. MLB 2Bs and 3Bs put up almost exactly the same offensive numbers in 2009, but that's an outlier; 3Bs out-OPSed the second sackers by at least 25 points in every year from 2004 to 2008. Second base requires more range than third base, and I have to believe (without doing any of the work that would justify the belief) that it's still a little easier to find a good-fielding 3B who can hit than it is to find a good-fielding 2B who can hit, and thus that, even putting aside the traditional power-at-3B-and-BA-or-OBP-at-2B conceptions, Polanco would be a slightly better fit at second than at third.
  Second, and more importantly, there's no guarantee he can still play third. He was good there in 2002, and he's been good-to-great at second ever since, but are the Phils absolutely sure his throwing arm hasn't atrophied from six years at perhaps the least arm-challenging position on the diamond?
  Third, even assuming that 2B and 3B really are of equal value, that's in a vacuum. This year, the options available at third base make this a very confusing move to me. Adrian Beltre is probably the best-fielding 3B in the league and, his injury-ruined 2009 aside, is a better hitter than Polanco. And he's almost four years younger. Now, he's going to cost more per year than Polanco, but two years, $20 million will probably net you more than Polanco's three at $18 would, even assuming Polanco can still make the throw and doesn't fall completely apart at age 35. And if you can't get (or don't want to spend on) Beltre, then Joe Crede, Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa and, yes, Pedro Feliz are still out there, most for a fraction of Polanco's price. Each one is a gamble in some form, but no more of a gamble than handing a three-year contract to a 34 year old second baseman and then asking him to tackle a position he hasn't really played in seven seasons. I really don't think I'd have done this one...and certainly not this early.
  
  
• The Jays have reportedly indicated that if Marco Scutaro stays, he'll play the outfield. Didn't I just see where somebody said something about a player losing value with a move from short to the outfield? Scutaro's fielding numbers have been wildly inconsistent, but for the last three years he's been either average or awesome at short. His only real value is as a shortstop who can hit a little and field adequately (or awesomely). And the Jays have to know that. Playing him in the outfield would be the most senseless waste of an asset since the days when Darin Erstad was a stellar centerfielder playing first base for the Angels.
  Of course, Scutaro is a Type A free agent, and it's a good bet that the Blue Jays would much rather have the two draft picks he'll bring than the, um, "opportunity" to acquire his services for the amount an arbitrator decides his career year was worth. Accordingly, Craig (in the link above) passes along the idea that they're just trying to make extra sure he doesn't accept arbitration. "Hey, man, I really hope you can re-up and be my suitemate again next year. I've got an air mattress in the bathtub with your name on it!"
  And actually, that would be a kind of clever idea, except for the part where everybody else finds out about what you're telling him, and it sounds unbelievably stupid. Isn't there a way to let him know he's not wanted without also making yourself sound like you have no idea how to run a baseball team?