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Written by Bill
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Tuesday, 04 May 2010 09:00 |
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 Coming up on a full month into the regular season, and the San Diego Padres sit at 16-10, with the second best record in the National League. They're the one team nobody picked to win that tight West division, but they're a game and a half up on the Giants and 4-5 up on everybody else.
You may remember that the Pads started out hot last year...but the honeymoon was already over by now. They started out 6-2 and 9-3, then lost 6 of 7 and 12 of 14. By the morning of May 4, they were 11-15, seven and a half games out of first, and on their way to a 75-87, fourth-place finish.
This year's squad is 5 1/2 games up on the 2009 team's pace, and they've earned it. Their run differential is near the best in the league and suggests an even-better-than-real-life 17-9 record by the Pythagorean method.
I think it's time to start paying attention to these guys. Check 'em out:
Catcher: Nick Hundley (.273/.365/.418, 119 wRC+, 0.4 WAR)
The 26 year old (no relation to former catchers Todd or Randy) is getting his first real shot as a starting catcher this year, but has already established himself as at least an average hitting catcher. Entering what should be his prime years, he could be considerably better than that. And I can't figure out why UZR (which is only now applied to catchers, and only to stolen base runs) gives him -1.0 runs; he's thrown out 5 of 13 runners (38.5%), well above the current NL average of 27%. Backup Yorvit Torrealba has long been miscast as a starting catcher, but he's a fine backup with some pop.
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez (.294/.408/.553, 159 wRC+, 1.0 WAR)
Best mere mortal playing first base in the National League. They've got to hang on to him if they keep winning, right?
Second Base: David Eckstein (.259/.300/.341, 85 wRC+, 0.4 WAR)
Some very good defense so far has kept his head above water (well above, actually; multiply that WAR by 6.5 to reflect how much season is left and you get a respectable 2.6). And although he's now 35 and middle infielders often fall apart at around 35, his career OBP is .347, and you have to figure he'll do a little better by the end than he's done so far.
Shortstop: Evarth Cabrera (.209/.274/.284, 57 wRC+, -0.2 WAR)
Ew. After having a superficially nice rookie season in 2009 (though UZR hated his defense, which kept his overall value down), everything has gone wrong for Cabrera in 2010. He's not hitting, his defense has been even worse, and he's not even stealing bases (4/6 after going 24/32 in just 103 games last season). Backup Jerry Hairston hasn't been any better. The bright side, I suppose, is that they're 16-9 with a total black hole at short.
Third Base: Chase Headley (.327/.368/.418, 135 wRC+, 1.0 WAR)
With Kevin Kouzmanoff out of town, Headley finally gets to play his natural position in the majors, and he's playing it well. The batting average will come down, but the power should go up, too. He's been a lot better, so far, than the guy he's replaced at the position.
Left Field: Kyle Blanks (.194/.310/.417, 105 wRC+, 0.2 WAR)
He's one of the most fun players to watch in the league due to his sheer size and surprising mobility, but he's really got to learn to hit the curve. His strikeout percentage is up from a very high 37.2% in 2009 to an unbelievable 44.4% (Mark Reynolds set the single-season K record last year while whiffing "only" 38.6% of the time), which makes it very hard to get a lot of hits. He's still just 23, and there's a good chance he figures it out soon and starts hitting homers in bunches.
Center Field: Tony Gwynn, Jr. (.255/.388/.382, 129 wRC+, 0.9 WAR)
He needs just 808 hits this year to stay on his dad's pace, but more importantly, he's been a tremendous leadoff hitter for the Pads so far this year, showing greatly improved patience (16.5 BB%), great baserunning, and great CF defense. It's hard to say if he can keep it up, but the improvements look like more or less a natural outgrowth of his semi-breakout 2009. Hard to see him keeping up his 5.9 WAR pace, but he certainly wouldn't have to do that to remain a very, very solid player.
Right Field: Will Venable (.231/.307/.474, 125 wRC+, 0.5 WAR) and Scott Hairston (.271/.357/.502, 149 wRC+, 0.9 WAR)
They haven't actually been platooning (Hairston has played all over the outfield but least of all in right), but I think they should be. Venable is a lefty with a career .803 OPS against righties, Hairston a righty with an .865 against lefties. Neither is still so young that platooning them would be a disservice to their development. They look like the perfect platoon partners to me. Any Padres fans out there know why this isn't happening yet?
Starting Pitchers
Jon Garland (35 IP, 2.06 ERA, 1.15 K/BB, 4.60 FIP)
Kevin Correia (28 IP, 3.86 ERA, 2.60 K/BB, 4.26 FIP)
Clayton Richard (30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.92 K/BB, 3.19 FIP)
Mat Latos (26.3 IP, 5.47 ERA, 1.89 K/BB, 6.28 FIP)
Wade LeBlanc (17.3 IP, 0.52 ERA, 4.0 K/BB, 1.93 FIP)
Well, that's pretty ugly. Correia is better than that, and Garland seems to always outperform his FIP (just not by that much). Richard probably can't keep it up either, with a surprisingly low HR rate, and Latos has been disappointing in every way. Only LeBlanc has been worth getting excited about, and nothing in his track record suggests he's capable of keeping it up. Chris Young should be back eventually (he went on the DL the day after throwing six scoreless in his season debut), and he'll help.
The Bullpen
Heath Bell (10 IP, 1.80 ERA, 5.33 K/BB, 2.09 FIP)
Tim Stauffer (15.3 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4.00 K/BB, 1.98 FIP)
Luke Gregerson (13.3 IP, 2.03 ERA, 4.00 K/BB, 1.44 FIP)
Edward Mujica (13 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.13 K/BB, 4.70 FIP)
There we go. No lefties in this pen, but if you've got guys who can get everybody out, who cares? The bullpen, after brilliant closer Bell, is stocked with excellent young arms that had good seasons in 2009 and seem primed to take a step forward in 2010. They won't stay this good all year, but they'll be good.
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I like this team. Just one real superstar, but they have the potential to be above average at every position except shortstop (and no way Cabrera is this bad). They could certainly use another starting pitcher, but they have a great bullpen, they're in a park that forgives a lot of bad pitching, and they have a defense (8.9 cumulative UZR through Sunday, best in the NL) that will generally catch whatever stays in the park.
Baseball Prospectus likes them too; BP's postseason odds report has them finishing 90-72, just behind the Giants, with a 48% chance of making the postseason. There's a ton of time left, but these aren't 2009's Pads. The only questions are (a) if they're good enough to hold off the Giants and/or take the wildcard, and (b) if they have the fan support and finances to keep this team together even when they're competing.
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