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Last week, in two separate posts here and here, I decided it would be fun to pretend that decades began with 5, and take a look at who the teams of the decades would be for those periods. And as you may have noticed, the second list ended with 2004, meaning we're halfway through the next decade: five years gone, five yet to come.
So how's the team of this phony decade shaping up? It's kind of fun, because while picking the best players of the next five years is (in most cases) a fool's errand, we've already got half of the data, so we can combine what we know and what we think might happen. You might think Stephen Strasburg will be the player of the next five years, for example, but he'd have to be almost legendarily good to make up for the fact that he's already missed half the decade. So away we go!
Catcher: Joe Mauer. Age: 27. 2005-2009: .328/.410/.490, 136 OPS+, 2872 PA.
Well, duh. I still think 2009's should have been his third AL MVP, all (of course) within this half-decade. There are other great catchers out there and other very good young catchers, but Mauer has a huge leg up on all of them. Like, 8 WAR, or 5 WAR and 4 years.
Other contenders: Brian McCann (26, .293/.356/.457, 121, 2322) seems most likely to step in if something catastrophic happens with Mauer, but he's the one who's currently 8 wins behind. Victor Martinez (31, .303/.376/.469, 123, 2885) is too old and probably won't be a catcher for much of the next five years. Jorge Posada (38, .290/.379/.489, 127, 2313) is the only other one who's been close, and he will fade eventually. I suppose Wieters could live up to his pre-MLB reputation and give us five years of catching like we've never seen...but it's gonna be hard for Mauer to lose this one.
First Base: Albert Pujols. Age: 30. 2005-2009: .334/.439/.631, 176 OPS+, 3354 PA.
Now this guy was a three-time MVP over the past half-decade, and likely deserved to win it in 2006, too. You might call 2007 his off-year, then: all he did was produce 7.8 WAR, fourth-best in the NL, and finish 9th in MVP voting.
Other contenders: None. There are some great, much younger 1Bs out there. And it's easy to see some of them having a better next five years than Albert. But let's get serious. Pujols' 40.8 WAR from 2005-2009 put him 25 WAR (four superstar-quality seasons, basically) ahead of Prince Fielder (26, .284/.381/.530, 140, 2804) and 24 ahead of Adrian Gonzalez (28, .282/.364/.508, 135, 2894). Guys like Teixeira and Howard are as far behind, and about as old as Albert. Any of these guys could turn into Lou Gehrig or Jimmie Foxx in their primes for the next five years, and still, all Albert has to do is show up and he's your big winner.
Second Base: Chase Utley. Age: 31. 2005-2009: .301/.388/.535, 134 OPS+, 3374 PA.
As amazing as Pujols is, Utley has been almost as good since '05, just three WAR behind. Utley's old for a 2B -- Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg fell apart at 33 -- but he's still two years from that, and has been performing at the same unbelievably high level for essentially all of the past five years. Other 2Bs, of course, have been great at (and past) 35, the age Utley will be at the end of the decade (Joe Morgan, for example). It's probably too much to expect the same level of play for all of the next five years, but it's very unlikely that he'll need to provide that in order to end up the 2B of the decade.
Other contenders: he's starting from a huge deficit -- two years in which he didn't play at all, and he's never played as well as Utley, even in his 2008 MVP year -- but it's possible that Dustin Pedroia (26, .307/.370/.455, 111, 2119) goes nuts. He'd still need Utley to get hurt or fall way off, though. There's really nobody else that has a realistic chance, unless Utley somehow just doesn't play another game in the bigs. Robinson Cano (27, .306/.339/.480, 113, 3036) would need to learn to play D, keep playing every day, and hit exactly like he did last year every year.
Third Base: David Wright. Age: 27. 2005-2009: .310/.394/.518, 138 OPS+, 3382 PA.
Finally, I get to pick a guy who wasn't the best over the past five years. But he was close -- just three WAR behind Alex Rodriguez -- and he's seven years younger than A-Rod. Now, as everybody knows, Wright had huge problems last year, losing 23 homers, gaining 22 strikeouts, and getting by largely on luck with an unsustainable .397 BABIP. But that's just one year; and he's just 27. This pick could look silly in five years, but I like his chances to get it straightened out and be his old awesome self (at least) for the next five years.
Other contenders: It's also entirely possible that A-Rod (34, .304/.407/.579, 3226) is another Aaron, Wagner and Musial, thundering on through into his early 40s. If that doesn't happen and the 2009 Wright is the real Wright now, Ryan Zimmerman (25, .284/.347/.478, 116, 2625) should keep hitting more or less like he did in 2009 and fielding like he's always done (which is to say, better than anyone) for the next five years. Evan Longoria (24, .277/.355/.528, 129, 1179) comes in with a three-year PT deficit, but is very nearly Zim's peer with the glove and could be about to have a huge offensive breakout.
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez. Age: 26. 2005-2009: .316/.386/.531, 138 OPS+, 2753 PA.
Derek Jeter was probably a touch better overall -- it's hard for a guy to beat a Hall of Famer in a five-year period when the guy had 2 PA in one of those years -- but while it's at least possible to see A-Rod excelling at third for another five years, it would be crazy to predict that Jeter at 40 might be comparable to Hanley at 31. It could happen, but even with Jeter's great bounce-back 2009, things aren't moving in the right direction. Hanley's the man.
Other contenders: Jose Reyes (27, .287/.342/.439, 104, 3130) isn't far behind Hanley in total value so far this decade, thanks to some good D, and is just half a year older. If he's all the way back from his injuries, he could make it very close. Five more 2009s from Troy Tulowitzki (25, .283/.357/.474, 108, 1839), especially if his defense bounces back to 2007's Gold Glove-quality level, would certainly put him in the conversation.
Left Field: Carl Crawford. Age: 28. 2005-2009: .301/.345/.457, 110 OPS+, 3115 PA.
Seems like he's been around forever, huh? But, no, he won't turn 29 until August. He's a fabulous defender and baserunner and a good enough hitter (who could still conceivably be getting better on that front). By no means a sure thing for this spot, but he seems like the best bet to me.
Other contenders: Matt Holliday (30, .322/.393/.553, 137, 3199) has probably been the best since '05, but he's two years older and seems less likely to age well. UZR thinks he's been declining as a fielder. If Ryan Braun (26, .308/.363/.574, 143, 1863) is closer to the almost-average fielder of 2008 (-3 UZR) than the dreadful one of 2009 (-14), the likelihood that he'll end up as far and away the best hitter at the position could make up for his missing the first two years of the decade entirely.
Center Field: Grady Sizemore. Age: 27. 2005-2009: .276/.368/.488, 127 OPS+, 3453 PA.
Much as with Wright, this would have been a much easier call a year ago. Even after an injury-wrecked and mostly ineffective 2009, though, Sizemore looks like the clear favorite. If his bat comes back (as it looked like it was in August, before he shut it down for the year) and he can keep playing an average CF for the next few years, it should be pretty easy.
Other contenders: There probably aren't two star players in the game right now more similar than Sizemore and Carlos Beltran (33, .281/.368/.505, 127, 2966), but that six years is pretty huge. Curtis Granderson (29, .273/.344/.485, 114, 2868) has some significant disadvantages vis-a-vis Grady, but he's still young enough to factor in. BJ Upton (25, .267/.354/.410, 101, 2003) could bust out any minute here.
Right Field: Nick Markakis. Age: 26. 2005-2009: .298/.367/.470, 119 OPS+, 2660 PA.
Right fielders, by and large, are an old group right now. Ichiro, Abreu, Vlad, Ordonez, and JD Drew are poor bets to be among the game's best five years from now. Markakis hasn't been the best since 2005 (he wasn't even playing in 2005), but he's been awfully good, and is young enough to keep being awfully good for another five years (and then some). His numbers took a big dip in 2009, however. Offense, defense, everything. I'd guess that the defense was a blip that will even back out, and part of the offensive drop was bad luck, but another part of it was nearly halving his walk rate. By no means a sure thing, but he looks to have a very bright future in a pretty thin position right now.
Other contenders: Justin Upton (22, .272/.350/.485, 110, 1157) should keep getting better and better and better. Ichiro (35, .328/.372/.426, 114, 3654) will be 40, but honestly, does anyone have any idea what Ichiro might do?
Designated Hitter: David Ortiz. Age: 34. 2005-2009: .286/.393/.570, 145 OPS+, 3184 PA.
As you might expect, the guys who have spent half their time over the last five years as DHes are all pretty old. No one is anywhere close to Ortiz right now, and while there's good reason to believe that he's more or less done meaningfully adding to his resume, it's also a bit hard to see him losing this title.
Other contenders: Jason Kubel (28, .277/.339/.476, 115, 1796), Billy Butler (24, .291/.346/.451, 110, 1510), and Adam Lind (26, .287/.338/.495, 118, 1379). Can't really see it happening, but if Papi's ineffective again and done after 2010 and one of these guys keeps getting better, who knows?
Starting Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Age: 29. 2005-2009: 82-46, 3.27 ERA, 133 ERA+, 1113 IP.
He hasn't been the best pitcher of the last five years, and he's not likely to be the best of the next five. But he's younger and more durable on the guys who have been the best, and he's got a 200-600 inning head start on the guys who likely will be the best.
Other contenders: Felix Hernandez (24, 58-41, 3.45, 125, 905) has some catching up to do, but not as much as Tim Lincecum (26, 40-17, 2.90, 152, 599). Roy Halladay (33, 81-37, 3.01, 146, 1072) is certainly still in the mix, and I'm pulling for a big comeback by Johan Santana (31, 79-42, 2.91, 148, 1085).
Relief Pitcher: Jonathan Papelbon. Age: 29. 2005-2009: 14-11, 151 Sv, 1.84 ERA, 254 ERA+, 298 IP.
Another no-brainer, really. Over the last five years, there have been three great closers: one will be 44 in 2014, one 39, and one 33. I know which one I'm going with.
Other contenders: only one, really, and with the same first name -- Jonathan Broxton (26, 19-12, 55, 2.92, 146, 317) is younger and has thrown more innings (because he hasn't always been a closer), and has the stuff to suddenly turn into the new Papelbon. Thinking Francisco Rodriguez (28, 14-19, 229, 2.62, 167, 344)? Not me. Closers throw few enough innings that their raw numbers end up all over the map, but K-Rod's underlying numbers have been steadily declining for years.
What'd I miss?
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That Mariano Rivera is a cyborg sent back from the future to close games for the Yankees until Skynet kills us all in 2016. So he'll get the full 10 years in.