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Earlier this week, reader and frequent commenter Barry Gillis sent me the following article. I think it's great, and I'm working on another debate for Around the Horn Baseball at the moment, so I'm very pleased to be able to bring it to you today. Please to enjoy!
When looking at the 2010 Baseball Hall of Fame voting, one thing stands out for me.
In 2010, Tim Raines received 164 votes for the Hall of Fame.
In 2010, Lee Smith received 255 votes for the Hall of Fame.
Within all the other discussions about voting in the 2010 election, the fact that at least 91 voters, but likely in the range of 100 or so, felt Lee Smith was more deserving of the HOF than Tim Raines was somewhat ignored.
In 1981 Tim Raines was a 21 year old outfielder.
In 1981, Lee Smith was a 23 year old middle reliever.
Coincidentally, they were each entering the full-time employment phase of their respective major league baseball careers.
I thought I’d look at whether, at each season of their career, anyone would likely have traded Tim Raines for Lee Smith even up. In other words, what would their perceived relative values with respect to each other have been after each season of their career.
1981
Raines finished second in the rookie of the year voting (behind the high profile Fernando Valenzuela ), led the league in stole bases (71 while getting caught only 11 times),played in the all-star game, batted .304/.391/.438, and finished 19th in the MVP voting.
Smith was an average middle reliever.
There is not a chance in Hell that anyone would have traded Tim Raines to pick up Lee Smith.
1982
Raines battled cocaine, but still led the league in stolen bases (78-16), batted .277/.353/.369, and was an all-star.
Smith was a reliever who delivered 17 saves with an ERA of 2.69 in 117 innings.
There was still not a chance that anyone would have traded Tim Raines to pick up Lee Smith.
1983
Raines was an all-star who finished 5th in the MVP voting. He led the leagues in stolen bases (90-14) for the 3rd year running, batted . 298/.393/.429, and led the league in runs scored with 133
Smith had perhaps his best season. He had an ERA of 1.65, led the league in saves with 29, and was an all-star. He finished 9th in the CY voting, and 18th in the MVP voting (13 spots behind Raines. Even though this was Smith’s best season...
There is not a chance in hell anyone would have traded Tim Raines to get Lee Smith.
1984
Raines was an all-star, finished 11th in the MVP voting, batted .309/.393/.437, led the league in stolen bases (75-10) for the 4th straight season, was 8th in batting, 2nd in runs (106), and led the league in doubles.
Smith went 9-7, with 33 saves (2nd), and an ERA of 3.65.
There is not a chance in hell anyone would have traded Tim Raines to get Lee Smith.
1985
Raines was an all-star, finished 12th in the MVP voting, was second in stolen bases (70-9, which was the first time a player stole as many as 70 bases while getting caught less than 10 times), batted .320/.405/.475, was second in runs scored (115), and was walked intentionally 13 times (10th) from the leadoff position.
Smith went 7-4 with 33 saves (2nd), and a 3.04 ERA.
There is not a chance in hell anyone would have traded Tim Raines to get Lee Smith.
1986
Raines was an all-star, finished 6th in the MVP voting, led the league in batting average and OB%, going .334/.413/.476, finished 3rd in stolen bases (70-9, which was the second, and last, time that a player stole as many as 70 bases while getting caught less than 10 times)
Smith went 9-9 with 31 saves (4th), and a 3.09 ERA.
There is not a chance in hell anyone would have traded Tim Raines to get Lee Smith.
1987
Raines had what may have been his finest season. He batted .330(3rd)/.429(3rd)/.526(9th), finished 7th in the MVP voting, went 50-5 in stolen bases, and led the league in runs with 123. He was second in the league in intentional walks.
Smith was an all-star for the second time, went 4-10 with 36 saves (2nd) and a 3.12 ERA (his fourth straight 3.00+ ERA season as a reliever).
There is not a chance in hell anyone would have traded Tim Raines to get Lee Smith.
1988
Raines played only 108 games; he batted .270/.350/.441
Smith went 4-5 with 28 saves (5th), and an ERA of 2.80. He finished 21st in the MVP voting (everyone with at least 29 saves got an MVP vote).
There is the slightest of chances anyone would have traded Tim Raines to get Lee Smith, but only because Raines’ 2/3 of a season reduce his perceived value.
1989
Raines batted .286/.395(5th)/.418, went 41-9(4th) in stolen bases, and finished 17th in the MVP voting.
Smith went 6-1 with 25 saves (9th) and a 3.57 ERA.
There is not a chance in hell anyone would have traded Tim Raines to get Lee Smith.
1990
Raines played in only 130 games. He batted .287/.379/.392, and stole 49 bases (caught 16 times).
Smith had one of his best seasons. He went 5-5 with 31 saves and an ERA of 2.06 split between Boston and St Louis. His 27 saves with St Louis were good enough for 3rd in the league.
So maybe, at first glance, you could say that someone would trade Raines for Lee Smith even up.
Except, they were each traded in 1990 and we may be able to learn about their respective values through these trades.
Smith was traded in-season in 1990, even up, for Tom Brunansky. Brunansky had finished 1989 with an OPS+ of 103, batting .239/.312/.410. He started the first 19 games of 1990 batting .158/.310/.253.
Raines was traded after the 1990 season, along with two minor leaguers. In return, the Expos got Ivan Calderon and Barry Jones.
Calderon, a year younger than Brunansky, had finished 1989 with an OPS+ of 119, batting .286/.332/.437. In 1990, he had an OPS+ of 110, batting .273/.322/.427. He stole 32 bases. He was looked upon as the White Sox’ best player.
Barry Jones had just gone 11-4 with an ERA of 2.31, and was the Sox’ second best reliever (after Bobby Thigpen). He had just finished his third consecutive solid season.
Calderon, on his own, had more perceived value than Brunansky. Throw in Barry Jones and it’s obvious that Raines was looked upon as the more valuable player when compared to Lee Smith.
1991
Raines had perhaps his worst season, batting .268/.359/.345. He did, however, steal 51 bases (3rd) and score 102 runs (9th).
Lee Smith had one of his best seasons. He went 6-3 and led the league with 47 saves. His ERA was 2.34. He had a BB/K ratio of 5.15, the best ratio of his career by a good margin.
He was an all-star, finished a distant 2nd in the Cy Young voting, and was 8th in the MVP voting.
A trade of Raines for Lee Smith after this season could be a distinct possibility.
1992
Raines returned to form, batting .294/.380/.405 with 102 runs scored (7th) and 45 stolen bases (7th) while getting caught only 6 times.
Smith led the league in saves again with his second straight season of over 40 saves (43). He had a 4-9 record with a 3.12 ERA. He was an all-star, and finished 4th in the Cy Young award vote with 3 points (only 5 people received votes).
It was unlikely Raines would be traded for Lee Smith even up.
1993
Raines had a spectacular season, hidden somewhat by the fact he only played 115 games. He batted .306/.401/.480. He stole only 21 bases, but added power and hit 16 home runs.
Smith had a typical season for this stretch of his career. He went 2-4 with 46 saves and a 3.88 ERA. He was traded on August 31 from the Cards to the Yankees for 26 year old minor league pitcher Rich Batchelor. He was an all-star.
There is very little chance anyone would have traded Tim Raines for Lee Smith. Well.. About the same chance that they would have traded Tim Raines for Rich Batchelor.
1994
Raines batted .266/.365/.409 and stole 13 bases in as many attempts. He scored 80 runs in 101 games, which was good for 11th in the strike season.
Smith again had a typical late career season. He went 1-4 with 33 saves to lead the league. His ERA was 3.29. He was an all-star and received votes for both the Cy Young (5th with 1 point) and the MVP.
A trade of Raines for Lee Smith after this season could be a distinct possibility.
1995
Raines batted .285/.374/.422 with 82 runs scored, 12 home runs, and 67 RBIs in 133 games. He stole 13 bases and got caught twice.
Smith went 0-5 with 37 saves (2nd) and a 3.47 ERA in only 49.1 innings. He was an all-star even though he wasn’t even the Angels best reliever. Troy Percival was 3-2 with 3 saves, an ERA of 1.95, and 94 K’s in 74 innings. He lost his job as closer prior to the next season.
Depending on needs, it is conceivable Smith and Raines would be traded for each other.
1996-97
Each was a spare part, although Raines was, by a large margin, the better spare part, putting up .321/.403/.454 in 318 plate appearances in 1997. At this stage in their careers, any type of trade was possible, although Raines was obviously the better player.
1998
Raines had another strong spare part season with .290/.395/.383 in 382 plate appearances.
Smith was out of baseball.
For those scoring at home, here is the tally of whether anyone would have traded, even up, Tim Raines to pick up Lee Smith.
No chance in hell: 8
Unlikely, but slight chance: 4
Distinct possibility: 3
Then there were 2 more Smith seasons and 4 more Raines seasons where Raines was by far the better value.
So... why would anyone vote for Lee Smith ahead of Tim Raines for the Hall Of Fame ?
It comes down to one person, really: Jerome Holtzman.
And it comes down to these statistics:
Smith led the league in saves 4 times, and is 3rd in career saves.
Here’s the reality. It is a heck of a lot easier to lead the league in saves than any other commonly referenced statistic. Most teams have only one person who is capable of getting a save, but there are teams who never settle on one guy and this further reduces the guys you have to be better than.
Raines led the league in stolen bases 4 times, runs twice, doubles once, batting average once, and OB% once. He’s fifth all time in stolen bases.
They each played in 7 all-star games.
Raines received MVP votes 7 times, while Smith received MVP votes 4 times. Raines’ average position in the voting was higher than Smith’s.
Raines career was longer and his peak much stronger.
There are about 100 voters who have some splainin' to do...
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Some of you younger guys might not rememer, but those numbers Smith put up as a reliever were good. For the '80's, before it became fashionable for the 3-inning save and racking up large numbers just for the sake of the numbers.
I agree that Raines should be in. I also think that Smith deserve to be in, if you're going to put any relievers in.
Would you have traded Bonds for Maddux? Ruth for Johnson? Mays for Koufax?
Just not really a valid argument, in my opinion.