|
 I was back in Minnesota this weekend, watching the Twins struggle against the NL East-leading Braves while the Tigers swept away the dreadful Pirates. On the out-of-town scoreboard, I noticed the Yankees were destroying the Astros, maybe the most hopeless team in baseball, while the Red Sox had to tackle the two time defending NL champ Phillies (and handled them pretty well, but still). So it occurred to me again why (first among many other reasons) I despise interleague play: it's really, really unfair.
If you've got four to six teams competing for one division title, they should play essentially the same number of games against the exact same opponents. Interleague play has always thrown that off thanks to the stress on "rivalry" series, but lately it seems that they've gotten even further away from giving teams in the same division an equal shot.
To show the kind of difference Bud Selig's stupid little game can make, I thought I'd take a look at the top contenders in each division right now (all teams currently within 5 games of first place) and the relative strengths of their interleague schedules, based on their opponents' records right now (through June 13). If a team has their "rival" twice on the schedule, of course, I counted that team's record twice, so it's sort of a weighted W/L% for each team's interleague opponents. It's not meant to actually prove anything -- teams who play the Phillies would have shown a much tougher strength of schedule a couple weeks ago, for instance, and I'm pretty confident they will again a couple weeks from now. It also doesn't matter that But I do think it suggests which teams stand to benefit or be harmed, and if nothing else, it's illustrative of the problem.
Here are the AL contenders:
| East |
Weighted W-L |
Wpct. |
Opponents |
| Yankees |
189-189 |
.500 |
NYM(6), Hou, LAD, Ari, Phi |
| Rays |
187-194 |
.491 |
Fla(6), Hou, Atl, SDP, Ari |
| Red Sox |
194-180 |
.519 |
Phi(6), Ari, LAD, Col, SFG |
| Central |
|
|
|
| Twins |
189-188 |
.501 |
Mil(6), Atl, Col, Phi, NYM |
| Tigers |
188-193 |
.493 |
Was, Ari, NYM, LAD, Pit, Atl |
| West |
|
|
|
| Rangers |
158-222 |
.416 |
Hou(6), CHC, Mil, Fla, Pit |
| Angels |
193-185 |
.511 |
LAD(6), Mil, CHC, Col, Stl |
| A's |
191-186 |
.507 |
SFG(6), CHC, Stl, Cin, Pit |
The Red Sox do have a significant disadvantage to the Yankees, one that will probably look bigger by the end of the year when the Phillies and Rockies start playing better. But the Rays get an even bigger boost than the Yankees. The big deal is the Rays and Yankees getting to play the Astros rather than the Rockies or Giants.
The Twins are at a slight disadvantage too, but neither of those divisions is anything close to what's going on in the West, where the Rangers have, by far, the easiest interleague schedule of any "contender." The main culprit is the Astros yet again, and the Rangers get them six times, while their chief competitors are stuck playing six games against two of the tougher teams in the weaker league. If the Rangers win the West by a couple games, there's a good chance that the nonsensical scheduling will have played a big part in that.
The NL is a little trickier:
| East |
Weighted W-L |
Wpct. |
Opponents |
| Braves |
164-150 |
.522 |
Min, TB, KC, CHW, Det |
| Mets |
191-185 |
.508 |
NYY(6), Cle, Det, Min, Bal |
| Phillies |
209-173 |
.547 |
Bos(6), NYY, Min, Cle, Tor |
| Central |
|
|
|
| Reds |
133-183 |
.421 |
Cle(6), KC, Sea, Oak |
| Cardinals |
153-169 |
.475 |
LAA, Sea, Oak, KC, Tor |
| West |
|
|
|
| Padres |
139-177 |
.440 |
Sea(6), Tor, Bal, TB |
| Dodgers |
182-140 |
.565 |
LAA(6), Bos, NYY, Det |
| Giants |
152-170 |
.472 |
Oak(6), Bal, Tor, Bos |
| Rockies |
170-152 |
.528 |
KC, Tor, Bos, Min, LAA |
Because there are two more teams in the NL, 12 of the 14 have to play another NL team during one otherwise-interleague series, so those 12 play just 15 interleague games rather than 18. The unlucky two this year are the Mets and Phillies, who need to play the full 18-game interleague schedule. This means that (a) the Mets' strength of schedule advantage vis-a-vis the Braves, if it existed at all, is probably pretty well erased; and (b) the Phillies really got screwed. Not only do they get the second-highest opponents' W% on the board, but they need to play an extra series against the stronger AL. It's already hurt them, as they've dropped four of six to the Red Sox.
The Reds have the second-easiest schedule. The Cards aren't technically that far behind, but replacing six games against Cleveland with three against the Angels and three against the Blue Jays sure feels like a big deal. It's kind of fun that the Reds and Padres, the two teams nobody expected to contend, get the biggest interleague breaks.
And that West...oy. The Dodgers have the toughest schedule here (at least before you consider the Phils' three extra games). They get their usual six tough games against the Angels, but then they get three more series against really good AL teams. And the thing is, it's not like there are any surprise teams on that list. Most people would've told you before the season started that the Angels, Red Sox, Yankees and Tigers, at least collectively, were going to be pretty good teams. Fate, or somebody, just had it in for the Dodgers this year. And schedules shouldn't just let fate (or somebody) have it in for the Dodgers (or anybody). Schedules should give teams at least roughly equal shots at proving themselves.
|