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The All-Star Game is still nearly a month away and the halfway point for most teams is still 15 or 16 games away...but people have been filling out All-Star ballots for like a year now. So why not give you mine? (Also, the Baseball Bloggers Alliance is tabulating its members' All-Star ballots, so I wanted to get mine in before I forgot.)
American League Catcher: Joe Mauer (.316/.393/.445, 1.8 WAR) I generally believe that the last full year (All-Star break to All-Star break) should determine the All-Star rosters -- along with a heavy dose of good ol' subjectivity -- so Mauer would very likely get the nod even if he hadn't been the best catcher in the league so far this year...but he has been, pretty comfortably ahead of Victor Martinez. It's unlikely that he'll ever match his 2009, but even if he's reverted completely back to his 2008-and-earlier form, all you're left with is the best player in the American League.
First Base: Justin Morneau (.344/.455/.624, 4.0 WAR) But it's this guy who's been the best player in the AL for the first sixty-plus games. He's slipped a bit, as he had to, from his amazingly hot start with the bat, but he's still edging out Youkilis and Cabrera as the best hitter in the AL, and he's been the best defender at the position -- his 6.4 UZR is more than twice the next-best AL 1B's total (and that's Kendry Morales, who won't be adding to it any time soon). It becomes a lot closer between Miggy and Morneau if we consider the second half of last year...but I kind of think that when a guy's been the best player in the league and is generally recognized as an All-Star calibre player to begin with, he should start. Also, while Morneau was hurt for the end of the year, which nearly cost his team the pennant, Cabrera got drunk and blew off the end of the year, and very likely did cost his team the pennant. So there's that.
Second Base: Robinson Cano (.368/.414/.609, 3.8 WAR) This one's a runaway. Cano is hard on Morneau's heels for best WAR in the majors. His .435 wOBA is fourth in the majors and nearly 60 points ahead of the next best AL second baseman. I think Dustin Pedroia is your runner up; Orlando Hudson has the next-best WAR at 2.1, but Pedroia isn't far behind at 1.8, and he gets the nod on his second-half 2009 and just generally being a better player.
Third Base: Evan Longoria (.321/.391/.573, 3.3 WAR) If Mauer isn't the AL's best player going forward, Longoria is. I don't know where he stands on RBI and such, but he should probably be considered the favorite for MVP right now (Morneau or Cano would deserve it if the season ended today, but Longoria's more likely to sustain it). Adrian Beltre is your surprise runner-up, but again, it's not a hard choice.
Shortstop: Derek Jeter (.290/.346/.435, 2.0 WAR) He's come back a great deal toward his norms since his weird start, increasing his walk rate and swinging at fewer bad pitches. He's not done yet, and he's still the best in the AL (but like Mauer, he'd probably still deserve it if he were merely one of the best). Marco Scutaro is proving that last year wasn't (entirely) a fluke, and probably deserves the first bench spot.
Outfield: Alexis Rios (.315/.378/.568, 3.3 WAR), Carl Crawford (.300/.353/.478, 3.1 WAR), Ben Zobrist (.311/.379/.445, 2.4 WAR) Alex Rios is a phenomenal comeback story that probably deserves his own piece. Carl Crawford is very likely in his last year as one of the most underrated players in the game. Ben Zobrist is in a pretty tight race with Shin-Soo Choo, Magglio Ordonez and some others for that third spot, but Zobrist gets it as much for last year, when he was arguably the best player in the league, as for this year, when he's merely been among the best. What I love about this outfield is that none of these three guys is a center fielder [edit: nevermind, Rios is one this year, but he's been predominantly a RF throughout his career], yet it would have a decent chance of being the best defensive outfield in ASG history.
Designated Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero (.336/.370/.563, 2.0 WAR) Hasn't had a batting average this high since 2004, an OBP this high since 2007, or a SLG this high since 2005. On pace for a bit over 5.0 WAR, which would be his best since 2005 as well. I'm happy with this (re-)development.
National League Catcher: Miguel Olivo (.311/.379/.534, 2.5 WAR) He doesn't have enough PA to qualify for the batting title, yet he's racked up seven-tenths of a win more than Mauer or NL runner-up Brian McCann, based partly on his excellent hitting and partly on having thrown out 53% of baserunners. He's coming up on 32 years old and has never posted an OBP better than .292, so it's impossible for me to believe the batting line is for real. But in a slightly off year for McCann -- and it was a slightly off second half of '09 too -- I think he's earned the nod.
First Base: Albert Pujols (.309/.425/.559, 2.6 WAR) Joey Votto is having a phenomenal year, arguably as good as or better than Albert's, and deserves the spot on the team that I'm sure he'll get. But the starting job is Albert's for the foreseeable future, as it should be.
Second Base: Chase Utley (.260/.376/.461, 2.4 WAR) His protracted recent slump is really dragging down his overall numbers, but they're still pretty great numbers for a Gold Glove-quality second baseman. Brandon Phillips is right on his tail, but Utley gets the legacy vote.
Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman (.302/.393/.568, 3.0 WAR) Scott Rolen and David Wright have been great and deserve spots on the team, but Zimmerman is challenging Utley and Hanley for the title of best non-Pujols in the NL. If you don't already consider him one of the five or six best position players in baseball, there's a pretty good chance you will be by the end of this year.
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez (.290/.374/.492, 2.1 WAR) Flip a coin between Hanley and Troy Tulowitzki to determine who's been best this year, and Tulo is building up some long-term cache of his own, but Hanley still gets the edge based on past performance.
Outfield: Marlon Byrd (.329/.374/.536, 3.0 WAR), Josh Willingham (.279/.422/.507, 2.5 WAR), Andrew McCutchen (.314/.381/.479, 1.9 WAR) This is a really tough call. Andres Torres leads all NL outfielders in WAR, but is 32 and a career .272/.362/.396 hitter in the minor leagues, but is now hitting .297/.398/.496 -- exactly the kind of fluke performance I don't really care to reward with an All-Star appearance. At least Byrd is a former top prospect who's established himself as a pretty good hitter. I picked Josh Willingham because I don't think anybody realizes how good this guy has been, but any of the Cardinals' outfielders (Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick or Matt Holliday, probably in that order) are about as deserving. McCutchen does relatively poorly (10th) by FanGraphs WAR but very well by BBREF WAR, leading all NL outfielders. It's time to standardize this stuff. Another guy I should mention is Angel Pagan, who's been great, but falls in the same I-just-can't-buy-it category that Torres does. It amazes me that I'm not putting Jason Heyward in the lineup, but he's just not quite been at that level. He'd probably qualify for a bench spot, especially since there are approximately 78 of them per league available this year.
So that's that!
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