Bill waded into some interesting water last week when he talked about the relative merits of Scott Rolen, and whether he’s bound for Cooperstown.  Likewise, Craig Calcaterra of HardballTalk commented on Johnny Damon’s pronouncement that he’d like to not have to pay to get in like the rest of us.  Rolen’s relatively low and Damon’s high counting stats should, eventually, force writers to reevaluate what it means to be a Hall of Famer, and who should be included among the game’s elite.  Let’s go through the relative merits for each player, who are probably going to be considered borderline cases when it’s all said and done by those doing the voting.

Scott Rolen

He’s played more than 140 games just seven times in his 15 seasons, and has stumbled thorugh some truly difficult, injury-riddled campaigns that have left him with a balky back (which could destroy his ability to stay on the field and stay productive at any time).  As a result, Rolen’s counting stats are, sadly, fairly pedestrian.  He is already 35, but has just 300 homers, fewer than 2000 hits, and fewer than 1200 RBI.   Even if he can stay healthy and productive enough to remain a regular player into his age 38-39 seasons, he’s not likely to go far beyond 400 homers, probably won’t make 2500 hits, and will wind up short of 1500 RBI.  He has never led either league in a major offensive category, and has only finished in the top 10 of the Triple Crown stats twice (RBI in 2002 and 2004).

While the accumulation of numbers is lacking, particularly for a middle of the order hitter, the accumulation of value is not. He’s set to pass Stan Hack and Frank Baker on the list of 3B with the most batting runs above replacement, which would leave him in ninth with a a good chance to eventually pass Bob Elliott and Ron Santo for seventh (behind A-Rod*, Ed Mathews, Chipper Jones, Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Wade Boggs).  And as a fielder, Rolen has already saved more runs above replacement than all but four other 3B (Brooks Robinson, who practically laps the field, Buddy Bell, Clete Boyer, and Robin Ventura).
*I’m assuming that A-Rod ends up playing more games at 3B in his career than SS.

The combination of his hitting and fielding makes Rolen, according to Fan Graphs’ WAR system, the 10th most valuable 3B of all time already, and almost certain to pass Graig Nettles before the end of the year(Rolen is at 69.6, Nettles at 71.8).  While he may eventually pass Santo (79.3), he is less likely to reach Chipper (currently 84.2), and will not have a chance to touch the upper echelon of Brett, Robinson, Boggs, A-Rod, Mathews, and Schmidt.  Still, there must be room in the Hall of Fame for one of the 10 best 3B of all time.  Rolen already probably deserves admission, with his Rookie of the Year award, World Series ring, seven Gold Gloves, and six All Star appearances added in as an extra bonus.

Johnny Damon

First of all, let’s acknowledge that Johnny Damon is a fine player who has enjoyed a long and successful career.  While Rolen has struggled to stay on the field, Damon ha been extremely durable, and hasn’t played fewer than 140 games in a season since his rookie year in 1995.  As such, despite relatively low rate stats (Damon ranks 38th among active players in batting average, 57th in on base percentage, and 91st in slugging percentage), Johnny Damon has kept racking up hits.  At 2500 now, he is 8th on the active hit list, and 92nd on the overall list.  That said, with his typical health and production, Damon only has to average 140-145 hits over the next three seasons to reach 3000. He also is fifth among active players in runs scored, as a result of hitting high in the lineup for almost all of his career and playing in front of good hitting teams.  While just 56th overall, Damon is likely to easily make it into the top 30 before he’s done as long as he continues to play regularly, and every eligible player in the top 30 (except for Rafael Palmeiro) has made the Hall.

However, in a new ballpark, and at 36, he has shown signs of slipping in 2010, and has played more at DH than in the outfield for the first time in his career.  While his 104 OPS+ may be acceptable for a good fielding left fielder, Damon seems to be no longer a good fielder, nor primarily a left fielder at this stage in his career, and as a DH he’s not helping the Tigers.  Without a return to the outfield more or less full time, it’s hard to see Damon remaining productive enough to stay in the lineup

Ultimately, this is a shame.  Johnny Damon’s a popular player, and seems like a decent guy, and looks like the Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer, and I’d like to see him get his numbers.  More than that, though, I’d like to see the writers twist themselves into knots to make the case for a player who, according to FanGraphs, has been exactly as valuable as Reggie Sanders and Lenny Dykstra.  Other outfielders with a higher WAR than Damon’s 41.4 include Chili Davis, Andy Pafko, Jesse Barfield, Andy Van Slyke, Paul O’Neill, Wally Berger, Amos Otis, and Devon White.  Among Hall of Fame outfielders, Damon has proved more valuable than...wait for it...two other inductees, Ross Youngs and Chick Hafey.  Inducting Johnny Damon into the Hall of Fame would almost literally lower the threshold of the Hall of Fame, and would rank with Hafey, Fred Lindstrom, and Jim Bottomley as among the most egregious inclusions of all time.  Even for a big Hall guy like me, his inclusion doesn’t pass the smell test.

The Johnny Damon debate would call the question of what the Hall of Fame is, what constitutes a “Hall of Famer” and test the convictions of the most stat-hating writers out there.  For if you can find a place for Johnny Damon, surely you also have room for Andy Van Slyke?

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