Ruben Amaro's Good Trade Highlights Ruben Amaro's Incompetence
Written by Bill   
Friday, 30 July 2010 09:00

CLeePart of me really wants to write about the Ramos for Capps trade and how totally, almost comically clueless Twins GM Bill Smith is, but that hits too close to home (and I imagine you'll be reading about it today in many other places if you're interested). Instead, I want to talk about the bigger news from yesterday: the Astros finally traded Roy Oswalt, sending him to the Phillies for 5th or 6th starter J.A. Happ and a couple decent prospects (one of whom they were somehow able to turn into a much better prospect, but that's not relevant to my point here).

On MLB.com yesterday, columnist Hal Bodley opined that the trade represented redemption for Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr.:

[F]or the first time since the Phillies shocked the baseball world and their fans by dealing Cliff Lee to Seattle for three mediocre prospects last December -- just hours after getting ace Roy Halladay from Toronto -- Amaro will no longer have to avoid questions about that bewildering move.

It's somewhat amusing that Amaro's announced priority at this Deadline was to obtain a starting pitcher. He wouldn't have had to say that had the Phillies not given Lee away.

Bodley states that the Lee trade was "one of the worst moves in the franchise's history." But Bodley sees this move, for Oswalt, as sort of wiping the slate clean; Amaro no longer has the Lee trade hanging over his head, because the Oswalt trade gives the Phils one of the best rotations in baseball.

See, I see it as the exact opposite. There's no question the Phillies got a good deal here, but the fact that it had to happen just highlights what a terrible move Amaro made in letting Lee get away in the first place.

Flash back to this past winter. The Phillies made a great move to get Roy Halladay, one of the best pitchers in the game. At almost the same time, they traded away Cliff Lee for a reasonable but not overwhelming stable of prospects (all of which have been between mediocre and awful in 2010, but that's beside the point).

All Amaro had to do was nothing at all, and he would have had a rotation headed by Halladay and Lee -- who might be the best pitcher in the game -- for the entire season. And Lee, at $9 million for 2010, came unbelievably cheap for what he gives you. The idea that the Phillies couldn't afford to keep both Halladay and Lee, for just this one season, is simply not believable.

What's more, with two consecutive World Series appearances and the oldest roster in baseball, the Phillies are obviously a team looking to win now. If Amaro was looking to restock the farm system after the Halladay deal, trading away another of the game's best pitchers was probably the worst possible way to do it -- especially considering that Lee's departure via free agency would have brought them two high draft picks.

So try to imagine the 2010 Phillies with Lee and Halladay. They've got a better rotation than they have now with Oswalt, and for the entire season (also, Lee's a lefty, which at least superficially makes the Halladay/Lee 1-2 punch more appealing than the Halladay/Oswalt one). By most measures, Lee has been worth between 4 and 5 runs above replacement this year (and in the tougher league); Lee's innings would likely have entirely replaced Kyle Kendrick, who has been right around replacement level, and also taken some pressure off the bullpen. Four extra wins -- which seems conservative -- would put the Phillies a game and a half ahead of the Braves this morning, rather than two and a half behind, and would be in a better position going forward with Lee than they are now with Oswalt.

Again, Amaro did well for himself, in isolation, in picking up Oswalt. And Oswalt is under contract for 2011 (at an above-market rate, but $11 million in cash from the Astros makes it a relatively friendly deal from the Phillies perspective), which helps, but not much. Amaro claims that his inability to resign Lee for 2011 was a key concern in the decision to deal him, but with the uncertainty of Jayson Werth's contract and the advanced and advancing age of the team, 2011 should not be a key concern in anything Phillies-related right now. They might win in 2011, but they know they can win in 2010.

So, in isolation, getting Oswalt was a good trade for Amaro. But the trade highlights the fact that the Phillies would be in a much, much better position, on this date and for the next two or three months, had he simply not panicked about the future and hung onto the even better second ace he already had.



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