Is Scott Rolen a Hall of Famer?
Written by Bill   
Friday, 02 July 2010 09:00

ScottyAnd I'm back! There was the server issue (which is not resolved, per se, but stable), then I got really busy. But I'm here now...for a little while. We're having a second child sometime in the next three weeks, and when that happens I suspect things will be quite slow around here for a while. But between now and then, I'll do my level best to bring you your daily things. Like this:

The sad thing is that if I were on top of things and writing every day, I could've been one of the first to bring this up. Having no idea that Scott Rolen was about to hit his 300th homer, I just sort of independently noticed that Rolen, injury troubles and perceived early decline and all, had put together a really, really fine career. But then he went and hit #300, and everybody's asking the same question (most dismissing it immediately, but there was a great one I read that I was sure was by Patrick Sullivan but can no longer find): is it time to start having the Rolen Hall of Fame discussion?

I'll give you my answer right up front: yes. Not only is it time for the discussion, but the result of that discussion ought to be the realization that, yes, Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer.

In discussing the ridiculous omission of Ron Santo from the Hall a few months ago, I talked a bit about how terribly neglected third basemen have been. And I can't find it right now, but I know I've discussed the cause of it elsewhere: nobody really quite seems to get what third base is about. It's a difficult position to play, on par with second base in both difficulty and importance (3Bs make many fewer plays than 2Bs, but on average they're much harder plays to make). Thus, it's very rare that one player will have elite-level ability at the both of the entirely unrelated skills of hitting and playing the position. We get this with second base; the offensive standards are appreciably lower. Nobody would try to tell you that Ryne Sandberg, Bobby Doerr or Red Schoendienst would be in the Hall today if they'd primarily played first base or right field (not sure how they've entirely missed the boat on Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker, but we usually get that). But with third base, we don't get it at all. We call them "corner infielders" and expect them to hit more or less like first basemen, when the reality is that hitting like a first baseman and fielding like a third baseman are really, really, really hard to do together. If you find a guy who's great at fielding the position and merely a very good hitter -- like Rolen -- you're looking at a great player.

So we need to start appreciating third basemen. But let's start appreciating this particular third baseman a little more right now. First, the raw/traditional stats (through Wednesday), and his all-time rank among players who have played more than half of their games at third base (with a minimum of 6,000 PA for rate stats):

PA: 7671 (27)
AB: 6634 (35)
R: 1129 (17)
H: 1886 (26)
RBI: 1182 (14)
HR: 300 (13)
BA: .284 (22)
OBP: .370 (12)
SLG: .501 (4)
OPS: .871 (4)
OPS+: 125 (7)

And the traditional extra stuff: Rookie of the Year, five All-Star appearances, one top-five MVP finish, one (only one?!) Silver Slugger Award, seven Gold Gloves, one great World Series winning performance (he hit .421/.476/.737 for the Cards in 2006). It's an impressive resume, and it beats the hell out of, say, Hall of Frischers George Kell and Freddie Lindstrom, but it doesn't really scream "Hall of Famer."

But that doesn't reflect his outstanding defense. Yeah, there are the seven Gold Gloves...but he almost certainly deserved even more of them. Per BBREF, his 112 fielding runs are 56th all time, at any position, and 10th all time among 3Bs. And most of those guys ahead of him (on either list) are guys who just couldn't hit at all, guys like Lee Tannehill and Art Fletcher. Of the 55 players ahead of Rolen in fielding runs above average, only seven are also ahead of him in batting runs above average: Clemente, Bonds, Mays, Yaz, Kaline, Schmidt, and turn-of-the-last-century great George Davis. All seven, as you probably know, are in the Hall. Hell, six of the seven don't even require two names.

Add it all up, and BBREF's system gives him 64.4 WAR, pretty comfortably in Hall of Fame territory. That's tied with Ernie Banks for 118th all-time, and 83rd among position players. Of those 82 in front of him, 17 are either not yet eligible for the Hall or permanently ineligible. Seven are not in the Hall but should be (Bill Dahlen, Whitaker, Grich, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell, and Santo). Fifty-seven are in the Hall. That leaves one, Kenny Lofton...and, well, I think he belongs, too, but you can argue over that one. In any case, Rolen is 0.9 wins behind Lofton in 1600 fewer plate appearances, and will probably pass him this year. Some of the many thousands of players who are not ahead of him on that list, along with Banks, are Home Run Baker, Al Simmons, Sammy Sosa, Roberto Alomar, Sandberg, Mike Piazza, Joe Cronin, Vlad Guerrero, Willie Stargell, and Harmon Killebrew.

By no means am I saying it's a no-brainer. Reasonable people can disagree on this one (at least until he puts up another year or two like the one he's currently having). But I want more third basemen in the Hall. Even after Santo finally gets in and Chipper and A-Rod eventually join him, there will be just thirteen, fewer than at every position except catcher (and will probably still have the fewest, since Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez are headed that direction as well). Rolen is certainly the best one left after those guys, and will probably pass Santo before he's done. His overall production is well within the range of  Hall worthiness, and I think he belongs.



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