Guest Post: Playing Pagan
Written by Bill   
Monday, 19 July 2010 09:00

PaganWhile I'm away getting to know my second child (who should be being delivered at around the time this piece goes live), I'm lucky enough to be able to have much of the dead space filled by extremely talented guest writers. Today (and again later this week) we welcome back the excellent Zach Sanders. Enjoy!

While the return on Carlos Beltran is great news for Mets fans, it’s for different reasons then you’d think. Sure, the Mets get a well above-average switch hitter to stash in the middle of their lineup, and yes, they get a solid outfield defender to help out their pitchers. But, more importantly, they get the chance to bench Jeff Francoeur.

Remember when Francoeur was good? Those were the days. From 2005-2007, Frenchy was worth 8 wins and was one of the best up-and-coming sluggers in all of baseball. Soon after, the power left his bat, he stopped putting up good defensive numbers, and became one of the worst players in the game. Even after all of this, the Mets have been starting Frenchy in right field all season, and he has barely been a replacement level player.

With the return of Beltran, Angel Pagan will be allowed to shift over to right field and send Francoeur to the bench. Pagan has performed very well this year, posting a line of .311/.367/.467 while stealing 19 bases in 24 chances. His offensive production has been good enough for a .369 wOBA and 131 wRC+, both career highs for the switch-hitter. Overall, he’s been the Mets' second best player this year (behind one David Wright), contributing 3.2 Wins to his team.

In the field, Pagan is a good defensive center fielder, so that would make him a very good right fielder. However, since Beltran is coming back from knee problems and isn’t getting any younger, I would recommend keeping Pagan in center and moving Beltran to right. While the Mets almost certainly won’t do this, it is the best option if they want to optimize their defense and try to keep Beltran as healthy as possible.

Moving from a replacement level player to Carlos Beltran is a huge upgrade for the Mets. While his knees will slow him down for the time being, Beltran’s return could spark a second half surge in Queens and result in the Mets making the playoffs.

Zach Sanders writes for FanGraphs. You can follow him on Twitter or reach him via This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .



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