I Love the 80's: Baseball Edition
Written by Bill   
Wednesday, 27 January 2010 10:40

This is no longer (completely) a one-man operation! As explained below, my old friend Mike, who you may know as The Common Man, will be stepping in about once a week. Next week he'll have his own handle and everything, but I thought I should give a little introduction. For his first piece, naturally, he tears my last offering to shreds (and deservedly so). Enjoy! 

 

My good friend Bill has been kind enough to encourage my foray back into the blogosphere, especially as it coincides with a busy time for him personally and professionally.  I offered to give him a break once a week or so, and he graciously accepted.  It’s especially convenient because yesterday, when Bill finished fisking the Prime 9 list of “best players of the 1980s,” he offered up his own replacement list that, while better than Prime 9’s, still has a couple problems.

 

As a quick review, here’s are the two lists side-by-side:

 

Position

Prime 9

Bill

P

Jack Morris

Dave Stieb

C

Gary Carter

Carter

1B

Don Mattingly

Eddie Murray

2B

Ryne Sandberg

Sandberg

3B

Mike Schmidt

Schmidt

SS

Cal Ripken

Ripken

LF

Rickey Henderson

Henderson

CF

Dale Murphy

Murphy

RF

Dwight Evans

Evans

 

 

First, let’s talk about second base, where both Bill and the MLB Network have mirrored the BBWAA’s inattention to one of baseball’s criminally underrated players.  Check out the following table (ooh, I feel like a circa ’97 Rob Neyer!), all statistics are from 1980-1989:

 

 

 

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS+

WAR

Player A

.275

.353

.420

113

39.4

Player B

.276

.377

.351

105

34.3

Player C

.285

.341

.439

112

33.3

 

 

As you’ve probably guessed, Player A is Lou Whitaker and Player C is Ryne Sandberg.  Player B is Willie Randolph.  It’s true that Sandberg played a season and a half less than Whitaker and Randolph, but since we’re only considering a player’s contributions during this decade, it’s pretty clear that Sweet Lou has them both beat, isn’t it?  If intangibles are important, all three played got into two postseasons during the decade, and played fairly well.  Whitaker is the only one to win a title.  Of the three, Whitaker has the most plate appearances, most hits, most doubles, most homers, most RBI, and most runs scored.  Sandberg, however, played for a higher profile team, was the acknowledged leader of the club (while Whitaker was always paired with Trammell), and had bigger seasons.  Lou was more consistent, never reaching the highs of Sandberg, but also never ebbing as low, which reduced his profile even further.

 

At third base, it appears that both Bill and Prime 9 have substituted “career value” for “’80s value” in choosing Mike Schmidt over Wade Boggs.  Schmidt is, without a doubt, the greatest 3B of all time, and his contributions in the 1970s make him the 16th most valuable hitter of all time, according to WAR.  However, while Schmidt was hot in the early part of the ‘80s, he progressively slowed down as the decade wore on.  For the full decade, Schmidt’s WAR is 57.1.  If we don’t give him credit for 1985, when he started more than 100 games at 1B, Schmidt fares even worse, at 51.8.  Boggs, on the other hand, despite getting a late start in ’82, quickly established himself as one of the game’s great hitters and dominated the late part of the decade.  From 1985-1989, Boggs’ WAR never dipped below 8.2 in a season, peaking at 9.1 in 1987.  For the decade, Boggs wound up with 60.5 WAR, which would have topped Schmidt’s decade even if we included ’85.  Boggs’ dominance of the ‘80s actually make him, as far as I can tell, the second most valuable player of the ‘80s, behind only Rickey Henderson.

 

I have to give credit where credit’s due, both of Bill’s additions to the list are right on.  Stieb dominated the 1980s .  Looking at cumulative WAR for the decade, here are some relevant names:

 

Name

WAR in 1980s

Stieb

45.2

Bob Welch

35.1

Fernando Valenzuela

34.8

Bert Blyleven

34

Orel Hershiser

32.8

John Tudor

32.8

Roger Clemens

32.3

Nolan Ryan

30.8

Dwight Gooden

30.2

Bret Saberhagen

29

Charlie Hough

28.7

Morris

27.9

Teddy Higuera

27.3

 

 

I don’t pretend that WAR is a perfect tool to analyze pitchers, but it’s readily available and is easy to add up, and when we do we find not only that Stieb outclasses the rest of the league by leaps and bounds, but that apparently Charlie Hough and Teddy Higuera have a hell of a Hall of Fame case, to say nothing about Bob Welch and John Tudor.  According to WAR, Gooden and Saberhagen added more value to their teams in the 80s than Morris, despite playing just six seasons each.

 

According to WAR, Murray just ekes out Keith Hernandez for 1B of the 80s as well (45.0 to 43.4), probably because WAR vastly overvalues the defensive contributions of a 1B.  Other prominent 1B from the ‘80s fall short (Will Clark 37, Mattingly 33.1, Hrbek 27.9).  By the way, Bill’s contention that Mattingly and Hrbek are about even is ridiculous to me, and I have the same retro-‘80s-hetero-mancrush on old T-Rex just like Bill does.  They are almost exact contemporaries (Mattingly: ’82-’95, Hrbek: ’81-’94), so there’s no difference in era.  As you can see above, Donnie Ballgame definitively has the higher WAR for the decade, and wins for career value as well 39.8 to 35.4.  It’s closer than you’d expect, and Hrbek was a very good player for the decade, but Mattingly’s better, particularly when you take into account Hrbek’s more pronounced platoon split.  Also, I would give Mattingly extra credit in this comparison, since his back injury wrecked his career but wasn’t his fault.  Hrbek basically ate, fished, and lazied his way out of the league.

 

Other interesting ‘80s WAR tidbits:

 

Go ahead, guess who the 2nd most valuable centerfielder is for the 1980s, according to WAR.  You won’t guess.  You’ll never guess.  I’ll just tell you.  Murphy leads the way with 35.5 WAR for seasons in which he was primarily a CF.  Coming in third for the decade is Chet Lemon (a highly underrated player), with 32.  Coming in second, just ahead of Lemon is, perhaps, the most underrated player of all time, Dwayne Murphy.  Murphy patrolled CF for the A’s from 1978-1987, then stuck it out for two years as a reserve with the Tigers and Phillies.  So his career is nicely encapsulated within the decade itself.  Murphy was a great Three True Outcomes talent, drawing as many as 102 walks in a season, and striking out 123 times at his peak.  He had good mid-range power and fluked into a 33 HR season in ’84.  He also was an unparalleled defender, winning six consecutive Gold Gloves to start the decade before his bat started to slow and power began to wane, and he was forced onto the bench.  Murphy’s 32.5 WAR during the decade is one of baseball’s great forgotten performances, and made all the more remarkable as Murphy spent all of ’88 and ’89 on the bench, and was a part-timer in ’86 and ’87.

 

Finally, while I’m on the fence about him as a Hall of Famer, Andre Dawson gets royally screwed by the Prime 9 system.  Dawson was primarily a CF from ’80-’84, and posted a 29.3 mark in those five seasons.  Upon moving to rightfield, the positional adjustment hurts him, but he still manages to put together 12.9 for the rest of the decade.  If we chose three outfielders, instead of choosing a LF, CF, and RF, Dawson’s 42.2 allows him to slide into the third outfield spot behind Rickey and Dale Murphy.



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Comments (4)Add Comment
howdy
written by lar @ wezen-ball, January 27, 2010
Glad to see you back to blogging, Mike. I meant to comment on The Common Man blog, but this should do. It's nice to know you'll be doing something on a fairly regular basis again.

And good points on the 80s lineup. I had little problem with Bill's lineup yesterday, but, thinking about it more, the Schmidt pick especially just doesn't work. Boggs is right on. And the Whitaker argument is hard to deny (though picking Sandberg isn't a sin or anything).

I'm not sure Hrbek and Mattingly are all that far apart though. The WAR numbers, at least, don't strike me as *hugely* in Donnie's favor (though 1B defense might be understated in the numbers).
...
written by Mike, January 27, 2010
Thanks, Lar. Good to be back.

I recognize the difference between Mattingly and Hrbek isn't large in terms of career value, and it's potentially skewed by some uncertainty over the defense, but a) Hrbek was a fine defensive 1B in his own right regardless of his size and b) I still can't put him in the same class as Mattingly during the '80s itself. Once Donnie got going ('84 being his first big year), he was clearly much better than Hrbek for the rest of the decade, aside from '88, when Hrbie just barely topped him. From '84 to '89 it's 32.8 to 22. It's enough to break any deadlock.
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written by Bill@TDS, January 27, 2010
Probably right, but Mattingly is much closer to Hrbek than to Murray or Hernandez. And I agree with lar that the difference isn't so big that you can definitively say Mattingly was all that much better (though I'll admit the spread is wider than it looked like when I was just eyeballing it). I don't think the splits play into it at all; the numbers they put up were the numbers they put up.

You have an error w/r/t Will Clark, who only played four seasons in the '80s and didn't average 9.3 WAR per. Did you mean Jack Clark, maybe?
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written by Mike, January 27, 2010
That is exactly what I mean. Too many circa '80s 1B named Clark, dammit.

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