So this is it: the day when those pesky/addictive/obnoxious Hall of Fame arguments will be put to rest -- or at least take on a severely reduced intensity -- for another 10 or 11 months. At 1:00 Central today, we'll know for sure which players (if any) the holy writers have seen fit to place alongside immortals like Babe Ruth, Jim Rice and Freddy Lindstrom.

It's good for me, because while I don't have high blood pressure or anything, reading pieces of self-contradictory nonsense like this from Jon Heyman and this from Dan Shaughnessy can't be good for my long-term health.

I gave you my ballot here, as part of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance poll (which I haven't talked about because, frankly, it was a mess, but you can see the press release here; what kind of world do we live in where we can't even get three quarters of baseball bloggers to agree that Roberto Alomar is a Hall of Famer?). As a reminder, my picks were Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, Raines, McGwire, Trammell. In that order, pretty much.

So who do I think will make it? It looks like people who have attempted to track the ballots of writers who have publicly announced their choices are finding that Alomar, Blyleven and Dawson are all receiving more than the required 75% of support.

But of course that's a relatively small percentage of the total ballots cast. And, Murray Chass and Heyman and Shaughnessy notwithstanding, I have to believe that there's a slight (or maybe not-so-slight) tendency for those ballots that are made public to have been cast by better informed, more enlightened voters. They pretty much have to be able to use the internet, for one thing, and/or write for a large newspaper or other outlet that makes a big deal out of publicizing its writers' ballots (like ESPN.com and USA Today). I have a feeling that these folks are, on the whole, more likely to make reasoned judgments than the voters at large, the vast majority of whom seem to be people you've never heard of from newspapers you've never heard of based in towns you've never heard of.

So, I'm not optimistic. Alomar will make it easily, as he should, and I have a feeling Dawson will make it. But I fear that Blyleven's support still isn't as high as it should be, and a lot of people just aren't thinking about Larkin hard enough. Let's make a few guesses:

Alomar 84%
Dawson 78%
Blyleven 72%
Larkin 65%
Morris 50%
Martinez 47%
Raines 41%
McGwire 35%
Trammell 29%

Eh? I don't know, mostly just hunches. I'll be glad when 1:00 rolls around and we can find out, be disappointed and move on.