At first, when I heard that Carl Pavano will be starting Game 3 for the Twins over a fully rested Scott Baker, and Gardy's explanation for it (his pitching coach said so), I was mad. Incensed, even. Irate. Everybody knows that Baker is the best pitcher on the team and Pavano's a journeyman, right? Baker had a 4.37 ERA (that high only because of a horrible April/May), Pavano 5.10. No-brainer, right?

Well, then I saw this:
Pavano: 199.3 IP, 4.00 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 4.48 tRA, 3.6 WAR
Baker: 200 IP, 4.08 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, 4.39 tRA, 3.5 WAR

FIP, xFIP, and tRA are all different advanced methods to measure how effective a pitcher has been, removing the effects of defense and luck, all meant to work on more or less the same scale as ERA, but more accurately. And comparing the two across all the various metrics, it just doesn't get much closer than that.

Then consider: Baker throws his 91 MPH fastball 62% of the time, his 83 MPH slider 21% of the time, and then splits the rest of his pitches evenly between a 78 MPH curve and 83 MPH changeup. Pavano throws his 91 MPH fastball 57% and his 83 MPH slider 19%, and otherwise relies on an 81 MPH change.

Pavano is five years older and listed at 20 pounds heavier (which probably gets you halfway to the truth), and his ERA is almost three quarters of a run higher. But forget all that: in 2009, these two guys were the same pitcher. Baker strikes out a few more, walks a few more and gives up a few more home runs, but they both have good strikeout rates, great walk rates and poor home run rates, and when it all shakes out, there's no significant difference at all. And there's no reason to believe that's a mirage, either; Baker has been a solid pitcher for three full years now, and Pavano has certainly shown that he can be a very good pitcher when healthy (and he's throwing the same pitches, at about the same speeds and frequency, that he threw in 2003 and 2004). They're probably going in different directions, in career arc terms, but at this particular moment in time, their arcs have met exactly. There are probably not two more similar pitchers in the entire MLB.

There will be a lot of hand-wringing over Pavano by Twins fans in the next few days (see, e.g., my Twitter feed yesterday afternoon, before I got all enlightened). And there will be a lot of annoying commentary from Yankee fans with an irrational (yet kind of understandable) hatred of Pavano. It will probably be one of the most talked-about decisions of the series. And yet, on the field, it just doesn't matter. Distinction without a difference. Scott Pavano will start Game 3, and Carl Baker will start Game 4 (if, God willing, it's necessary). There are plenty of other things to fret about right now -- go ahead and let that one slide.