Nick Punto, the Underappreciated, Tiny Superhero
Written by Bill   
Friday, 16 October 2009 09:00

So, Little Nicky Punto has been getting a lot of attention lately. That's what happens, I suppose, when you run your team out of the postseason with one of the worst baserunning mistakes ever made.

Jack Moore points out that Punto doesn't really deserve his reputation for "doing the little things" -- something anyone who watches the Twins with anything like a critical eye can tell you, having seen way too many missed bunts, big home-run swings invariably resulting in short popups to right, and the infuriatingly reliable head-first slide into first on any close play -- and provides a very accurate rundown of what Punto does (and doesn't) do, finally concluding that "[h]e's a great bench player...but any team that starts him won't be a perennial playoff contender."

Tom Tango then noted that that conclusion really didn't follow from Moore's analysis; Punto has been good enough defensively that he's been about an average player, despite his utter lack of power, throughout his career. A "perennial playoff contender" generally needs an average (or even slightly below average) player or two in the starting lineup; even the Yankees have Melky Cabrera. (Furthermore, Tango didn't say this, but it's incoherent in the first place to say something like what Moore said, that a team "won't be a perennial playoff contender" based on one player, even if he really was a bad one. The Braves made the playoffs approximately sixteen thousand seasons in a row whilst starting guys like Rafael Belliard and Walt Weiss.)

Before all that happened, I had already decided I was going to write something about Punto. Then brilliant Twins blogger and fellow Bloguinite Andrew went and wrote essentially the post I was going to write. In a nutshell: Punto needs to start for this team. He's the most patient hitter on the squad, believe it or not, has an above-average OBP, is a brilliant defender wherever you put him, and, despite the embarrassment that was 2009 ALDS Game 3, is the best baserunner on the team and one of the best in baseball (the metrics measuring baserunning don't count against him the hits he's lost because of the head-first slide into first).

So go read Andrew's post, and you know pretty much exactly how I feel about Little Nicky. But I felt I needed to write something anyway, for a simple (but silly) reason: I owe it to the guy. See, I've hated Punto, for a long time. Between the first-base slides and the trying to hit for power despite having none, and what with him being one of the worst players anyone has ever seen in 2007 (.210/.291/.271 as a third baseman, albeit a very good one defensively), I just couldn't stand the guy. Or, more accurately, couldn't stand the fact that he was starting almost every day for my team (the guy himself seems decent enough).

And, ironically, a day or so after most Twins fans had turned against Punto (and I was plenty mad too, of course), I turned around completely. Sort of an epiphany. Punto is a quality Major League starter, and, as Andrew says, needs to start for this team in 2010. Here's why:

(click here to read more)

First, you've just got to throw out his 2007. I've heard that he was playing hurt for much of the year, and it's clear that there was something wrong; he hit line drives just 14% of the time (his career average is 20%), most of them turning into weak groundouts. He probably wasn't actually the worst player in the majors (VORP believed he was, but that doesn't factor in individualized defensive ability), but he was double plus ungood.

In 2006, Punto hit .290/.352/.373, and in 2008, .284/.344/.382. That's basically an average hitter, with an above average OBP and a poor SLG. Then this year, he fell to .228/.337/.284. Still an above-average OBP thanks to a career-high walk rate, but his plummetting batting average dragged his slugging percentage down to an unacceptable level.

So what was the difference? Yet again, it's all BABIP. Per FanGraphs, Punto hit .337 on balls in play in 2006 and .336 in 2008, but only .280 in 2009. Now, .330+ is well above his career average (currently .300), but that career average is also significantly dragged down by his 472 at-bats with a .257 BABIP in his awful 2007. At any rate, .280 is not .300; bump his 2009 BABIP back up to his career average, and that bumps his OBP up to .349, and his SLG up over the .300 mark. Bump it to .320 (which I suspect is closer to his true talent level, given his consistency in 2006 & 2008 and the frequency of line drives he hits), and he's a .259 hitter with a .363 OBP. That, for a good-fielding middle infielder, is an awfully useful little player.

So here's the thing: the Twins have two gaping holes going into 2010, and they're at 2B, SS, and 3B. Nick Punto is the reason that sentence isn't a typo: fill two of those holes, and Punto will fit neatly into whichever one is left over. Read my mind and re-sign Joe Crede (and call up Danny Valencia when Crede needs yet another back surgery) and trade for the Brewers' J.J. Hardy? Punto's your second baseman. Pick up Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez and call up Valencia to play third? Slide Nicky to short. It seems like a much worse idea to play him at third base, but if that's the way it shakes out, Nicky can handle that, too. He's got you covered.

There are all kinds of problems with the non-Morneau parts of the Twins' infield right now, but Punto isn't one of them; on the contrary, Punto's one of the solutions. Any one of the solutions that you decide you need him to be. That's a pretty nice thing to have.



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