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Sometimes the obvious thing is also the right thing. And the easiest!
NL MVP 1. Albert Pujols 2. Hanley Ramirez 3. Chase Utley 4. Prince Fielder 5. Ryan Zimmerman 6. Adrian Gonzalez 7. Troy Tulowitzki 8. Ryan Howard 9. Pablo Sandoval 10. Derek Lee
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I argued back in late August that Hanley, not Albert, was the MVP, and that Utley was still in the conversation too. Even then, that sounded crazy to just about everyone, but I believed it, at that time (and still do, through that time). From then (August 28) through the end of the season, Albert has hit .366/.449/.642 and, if you trust in UZR completely, picked up a couple runs on defense. Meantime, H-Ram has hit .252/.348/.426 and Utley .214/.281/.341. I'd say Prince Al settled that little (non-)debate pretty well. He didn't win the triple crown, finishing six points of batting average and six RBI off the leads in those categories while leading in HR. But he put on a great charge to the end, and had one of the best seasons of his incredible career.
I'm shocked to put Howard on this list at all, given how incredibly overrated he is by the general public and the fact that, all year, I really didn't think he was particularly close to the top 10. But: he hit .303/.390/.582 in September and October, and UZR thinks he's actually become a pretty decent first baseman, which puts him back into consideration. And he's come up big at the right time; he's third in the majors in Win Probability Added and led the world in FanGraphs' "clutch" rating, which, pure luck or no (okay, it's definitely pure luck), bumps him a few places up my list, since, you know, all that coming up big in big spots did actually take place. He's still likely to finish much higher than he deserves to in the actual voting.
Cy Young Award 1. Tim Lincecum 2. Javier Vazquez 3. Adam Wainwright
Wins are the opiate of the masses, or something like that. Lincecum probably won't win his second consecutive Cy, but deserves to. He finished second in the league in ERA at 2.48, and, according to FIP, pitched even better than that (2.34). ERA leader Chris Carpenter's FIP was 2.78, and Lincecum pitched 33 more innings. Vazquez, who went only 15-10 and probably won't show up in the voting at all, had a career year, but couldn't get the Braves to score any runs for him. Wainwright (your likeliest real-life winner), Carpenter, Joel Pineiro, Dan Haren and Ubaldo Jimenez all have pretty solid claims to the #3 spot, but Wainwright's league-leading innings total separates him from the herd for me.
Rookie of the Year 1. Andrew McCutchen 2. Tommy Hanson 3. J.A. Happ
I have a feeling Happ will win, but McCutchen has been the class of the NL's rookie, um, class. He played a respectable center field (I have a feeling he'll be a lot better than "respectable" over the next several years) while hitting .286/..365/.471 -- after the shocking Garrett Jones, the Pirates' best hitter -- and also stole 22 bases at an 81% success rate, making both Pirates fans forget all about Nate McLouth. He's been a good win or so better than either of these rookie pitchers. Of those, Happ pitched nearly 30 more innings with a nearly identical ERA (2.93 to Hanson's 2.89), but Hanson did a better job of actually pitching: better strikeout rate than Happ, better walk rate, and fewer homers. I don't think anyone doubts that Hanson has a better future, but I think he's also had a better present, fewer innings and all.
The rules of these posts state that I should also pick the Manager of the Year Award, but I can't do it. I don't have any idea what managers are better than any others in the National League. Jim Tracy will get a lot of attention for leading the surprising Rockies, but really, if he was an idiot with the Dodgers and an idiot with the Pirates (not saying he was, just that that was his reputation), how'd he get so much smarter this year? The thin air clear his head? I guess I'd go with some combination of Bobby Cox, Bruce Bochy and Fredi Gonzalez.
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