I don't think he'll get or deserve the Cy Young Award because of the time he's missed due to injury, but Chris Carpenter was, pitch for pitch and inning for inning, probably the best pitcher in the world in 2009 whose first name didn't start with a Z. He led the NL in ERA, and his FIP wasn't far behind. He led all pitchers in Win Probability Added and WPA/LI.

Understandably, in looking around the 'net for playoff predictions, nearly everyone who picked the Cardinals to beat the Dodgers in the NLDS opined (as I did, on behalf of my nickel) that the Cards' starting pitching trio of Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro would be too much to handle. And maybe it still will be, ultimately, sort of. But...

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While Carp's 93 MPH average fastball makes him the 16th hardest-throwing starter in the majors, he's not a strikeout pitcher; his 6.73 Ks per 9 innings put him about as close to the lowest of the qualified starters (#77 John Lannan's 3.88) as he was to the highest (Tim Lincecum's 10.42).  Rather, he (like teammates Pineiro and, to a lesser degree, Wainwright) has gotten by by being really, really good at the other things good pitchers do: limiting walks (1.89 per 9, 6th in the MLB) and homers (0.33 per 9, 1st). In 29 starts in the regular season, Carpenter never walked more than three and walked zero or one 15 times. A very high 65% of his pitches were strikes. He gave up four or more runs three times, but each time, was primarily the victim of a lot of balls happening to find holes or soft landing spots in the outfield. All in all, just an awesome season, and remarkably steady. If there was a sure bet for game one, it should have been that Carpenter would give the Cards a solid effort.

Last night, as much as Dick Stockton loved to praise his tenacity and workhorselike qualities, Carpenter was a wreck. 59% of his pitches went for strikes -- low for him, but not disastrous -- but there were 105 total pitches, and in just five innings, and he was missing his spots all over the place even when the result was a strike. Carpenter walked four, hit a batter, and surrendered a home run to Matt Kemp. His final line: 5 innings, 9 hits, 4 runs (all earned), 4 walks, 3 strikeouts and 1 HR. In runs/innings terms, it was probably his second or third worst outing of the year; when you consider all the things he did that were within his own control, though -- again, the walks, homers and HBP -- you can make a good case that it was his worst.

If this was a case of postseason jitters (to the extent that things like that even exist), that's a first for Carpenter. In 8 starts and 53 postseason innings in 2005 and 2006, Carpenter had gone 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA including a sparkling eight-inning, three-hit, no-walk shutout performance against the Tigers in the World Series. Nope. The best pitcher in the National League went out there tonight and threw up an absolute clunker. Nothing more to it than that.

As I write this, the Cards are trailing 5-2 in the 6th inning. They may well win this game, and are certainly still very much in the series. If they win either, though, they won't have Carpenter to thank. If you staked some part of your reputation (or a sum of money) on the Cards winning this series, and they win, then you've won, but considering that a big part of your analysis was certainly Carpenter's certain dominance over Randy "unlikeliest Game 1 starter ever?" Wolf and the Dodgers, it's like you hit on a 16 when the dealer had a 6 showing and happened to pull a 5. Think of all the time and thought people put into researching and weighing these matchups and histories and whatnot! I say you save some time and just sit back and enjoy the games. In the postseason, even when you guess right, you're usually right for the wrong reasons.