Was it Too Good to Be True?
Written by Bill   
Tuesday, 02 June 2009 06:00
So Josh Hamilton missed another game yesterday and had an MRI today (results unknown as I'm writing this). Hamilton, who played 156 games and was probably the story of the year in 2008, has already missed 15 of the Rangers' first 50 this year. What's more, when he has played, he's been decidedly nongood. He's striking out almost four times for every walk (last year it was about two to one). His batting average, OBP and SLG are down 64, 81 and 74 points, respectively, from 2008. He's still got outstanding power, slugging .542 in the 17 games he was able to get into in May, but that's not gonna cut it. Especially not on a team with Nelson Cruz, Marlon Byrd and Andruw Jones all doing much, much better than that. On the bright side, UZR thinks his defense in center field has suddenly gone from atrocious to outstanding.

I guess it could be seen as a good sign that Hamilton keeps going down with the same issue, a "recurring groin problem." I mean, it would be worse if he's gone down like three or four separate times with different problems, right? Or maybe the fact that he can't get over this groin thing is an even worse sign. I have no idea. I'm just looking for the silver lining here.

Because here's the thing: I love Josh Hamilton. I just want to see him hitting baseballs a long way for many more years. I know I'm not exactly alone in that sentiment, but I just don't think you can deny that the world is a slightly better place when Josh Hamilton is playing baseball (and playing well). He's 28 years old. I would like to see him smiling and having fun and making the game look easy for another ten years or so. Given all he's put himself through and all he's done to pull himself back, that doesn't seem like too much to ask.

But why do I get the feeling that Joe Sheehan is dead on when he says this: "Hamilton is overrated by dint of storyline, because his body doesn't appear to have what it takes to play regularly at a high level in the major leagues"? I mean, really, we're talking about 15 missed games and five bad weeks. So is that crazy?

But then there was 2007, when he didn't play a game from May 19 to June 4, or from July 8 to August 11, or from September 12 onward. He suffered from (presumably among other things) gastroenteritis and a sprained wrist. When he played, he was just as effective as he was in 2008 (131 OPS+ in '07, 136 in '08), but 100 games of Hamilton is obviously quite a bit less valuable than 150 games of Hamilton. And 100 games of Hamilton at a shadow of his established ability, which is what he's showing right now, just isn't very valuable at all.

So maybe I'm just preparing myself for what seems inevitable. That just seems like part of the story, like how Roy Hobbs (the movie version; I read the book, but have forgotten most of it) was fated to have his brief moment in the sun before injuries and age took the game away from him again. The plotline calls for a tragically brief flash of brilliance, not ten years of stardom.

Real life doesn't usually work that way, of course, and I get the hunch that he'll have healthy stretches, this year and for the next bunch, where he just looks unstoppable, but that he just won't be able to stay in the lineup on a regular basis. Like Shane Mack, I suppose, and Jim Edmonds, and Larry Walker, and Pete Reiser...but more interesting somehow.

Or am I reading too much into one nagging groin (and a whole bunch of other nagging things two years ago)?


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