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Well, the deal finally got done yesterday. Halladay's a Phillie, Lee's a Mariner, and the Blue Jays are...looking forward to 2013 or so.
Paying his respects to the dear departed in a press conference, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos said that Roy Halladay would probably go down as the greatest Blue Jay.
That's a sentiment I heard a few times yesterday, from Jays fans and/or media. Is it true?
The Jays have been around for 33 seasons. Only four Hall of Famers have worn the powder blue (Canadian version) -- Phil Niekro, Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield and Rickey Henderson -- and it was for a combined 4 seasons for Molitor and Winfield, 44 games from Rickey and three starts from Niekro.One assumes that Roberto Alomar will be announced as (one of) the newest Hall of Famer(s) next month, which will more than double the number of games played for the Blue Jays by Hall of Famers (he spent five full seasons there).
The team leader in plate appearances is Carlos Delgado at 6018, 118 ahead of Tony Fernandez. Fernandez leads in hits, 170 ahead of Delgado. Delgado leads in HR by 133. With a minimum of 1500 PA, Paul Molitor leads in batting average (.315), John Olerud in OBP (.395), Delgado in SLG (.556), Fred McGriff in OPS+ (154). Lloyd Moseby has 255 steals, 49 more than Alomar.
The franchise leader in innings is Dave Stieb, at 2873, 30% more than anybody else. Stieb also leads in strikeouts and wins. With a minimum of 700 innings, Stieb also leads in ERA, in a virtual tie with Jimmy Key and a point ahead of Halladay. Key leads in WHIP. Juan Guzman leads in K/9. Halladay leads in ERA+, BB/9 and K/BB, and is either second or third in every other category mentioned here.
Here are some not-so-random dudes and their wins above replacement totals with Toronto:
Halladay 47.4
Delgado 33.8
Fernandez 33.3
Key 27.8
Jesse Barfield 27.2
Pat Hentgen 25.3
Moseby 22.8
Vernon Wells 22.2
Olerud 21.2
Alomar 20.1
Guzman 20.0
George Bell 19.7
McGriff 18.9
Shannon Stewart 15.9
Kelly Gruber 14.2
Molitor 9.3
Joe Carter 5.7
Based on this list, I think I'd say you could make a case for Halladay or Delgado, and maybe Fernandez. I include Delgado despite the huge disparity in WAR because I'm not sure I trust "Total Zone," the component of WAR that measures defensive value, as a measurement of a first baseman's fielding (and Delgado was significantly negative just about every year). Both played pretty much nine full seasons with the team. Both were stars just about every one of those years. Halladay won a Cy Young; Delgado could've won an MVP in 2000 if not for that silly "winning team" thing. I think you could make your own adjustments here and there and make a strong case for either one. And if you wanted to argue that Fernandez's nine consistently solid years at shortstop put him on top, well, I think you'd probably be wrong, but it wouldn't be a ridiculous argument.
But it's all moot.
See, I left off one dude from the list above:
Stieb 53.6
Stieb pitched for the Jays from 1979 until 1992, and came back after a four-year layoff to throw 50 last innings with them at age 40 in 1998. Once he took over as a full-time starter in 1980, he averaged 231 innings and 14.3 wins for the next eleven years. He led the league in innings twice, complete games once, ERA once, ERA+ twice...and HBP five times. He was in the top five in ERA+ five times in a decade. He made the All-Star team seven times, starting it twice (both one more than Halladay).
Stieb's five best years, by WAR: 7.7, 6.8, 6.5, 6.4, 5.6 (33)
Halladay's: 7.5, 6.9, 6.8, 6.5, 5.5 (33.2)
Stieb's best was essentially exactly equal to Halladay's best, and Stieb logged 800 more innings with the team. Maybe Halladay was more consistently great (and he did have a 133 ERA+ with the team to Stieb's 123), but I just don't think it adds up. Halladay was great, but his fight for his spot in Jays history (barring a late-career return, which is actually amazingly comon with this franchise) is for second place, not first.
Your all-time greatest Jay is Dave Stieb, says me. What say you?
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